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Taiwan Real Estate Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Oct 2010, Pages: 64
The fortunes of Taiwan’s commercial Real Estate sector are leveraged to those of the IT sector and to the economy of mainland China. Unfortunately, the deceleration in China’s economy is coming at a time when there is a glut of space in Taipei – especially in the retail and industrial sub-sectors.
Over the course of 2009, there was a sharp fall in rental rates, and an even greater rise in yields. It appears that the protagonists in the real estate market have adjusted their expectations. Over the next five years, most of the investment returns will come from income, rather than from capital growth.
The good news is that most of the adjustment has taken place. When the authors interviewed them for the second time this year in July, our in-country sources indicated that rents, yields (and, therefore, capital values had remained broadly stable since the end of 2009.
The massive Gate of Taipei project will add 2-3mn sq m of new, top quality, space to the office and retail subsectors. The authors in-country sources are confident that it will cause overall rental rates (and, they would presume, prices and capital values) to increase. However, it may cause the already fairly high vacancy rates to grow in older and less glamorous premises.
For the time being, the authors continue to expect that yields will generally track sideways in all three sub-sectors. Increases in rental rates will, in general, be met with corresponding rises in prices and capital values.
Key Features of This Report
This is the latest edition of a new series of industry reports that seeks to identify the key dynamics of the real estate sectors of 44 countries around the world, some of which are developed and some of which are, in every sense, emerging markets. The questions that the report seeks to answer for each country remain as follows: what are the main issues that will matter to actors in and around real estate development in the country concerned, both over the long and the short term? What are the main constraints that they face? What are the key insights that one garners when one compares the real estate sector of the country concerned with its peers in other countries?
In Q3 the authors introduced a very substantial new improvement to the reports. They incorporated data and qualitative observations provided by commercial real estate agents operating in the countries surveyed. As a result the authors gained a much clearer picture of the balance between demand and supply in each of three main sub-sectors – office, retail and industrial. They also introduced a new approach to the forecasting of rental yields, which is discussed in the methodology sector of this report.
In Q4, the authors have incorporated a lot of new data in relation to rents and yields in 2010. They gained this data by way of a new round of interviews with their in-country sources in mid-2010. In some cases, the latest information from their sources has caused them to make significant revisions to their forecasts for 2011-2014. They asked their sources to indicate what growth in rents is likely for 2011. They explain their answers in the Industry Forecast Scenario.
Taiwan Real Estate Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, real estate associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Taiwan's Real Estate industry.
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