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Global Briefing - Forecast Revisit: How Will Retailing Develop in 2010 and 2011?
Euromonitor International, Sep 2010, Pages: 50
Objectives of Global Briefing:
- The core objective of this report is to examine the current state of the global retailing industry, and determine how the latest industry trends and developments might contribute to a revised understanding of the reports forecast projections.
- This briefing will take into consideration a variety of industry developments that have taken place since the publication of the latest retailing data in October 2009.
- Where necessary, updated insight and analysis will be used to restate existing industry forecasts for the years 2010 through to 2014, in order to provide the reader with a view on how to work with the reports forecasts during a period of continued economic uncertainty.
- Any revised forecast projections and/or scenarios for the global retailing industry are based primarily on qualitative feedback from retailers, manufacturers, other industry sources and the reports research analysts. Assumptions are also predicated on historic market performance and an industry consensus view on growth expectations for the future.
- Factors such as fluctuations in economic growth, consumer confidence, the impact of major mergers and acquisitions on the industry’s global competitive landscape, and changes in the retailing environment are difficult to predict. However, they can all change fairly quickly, which in turn can contribute to potentially significant changes to expectations on future market performance for specific product categories and geographies over a defined period of time.
- A downgrade in economic performance, for example, can reduce predicted increases in disposable income levels and in turn slow previously projected retail gains for more price-sensitive purchases, especially in non-grocery retailing channels. Similarly, the introduction of new taxes or the raising of previous levels in the short term could limit value growth for retailers across the industry.
Key Findings:
- The reports forecasts were published in November 2009, built on research up to that point. Since then, economic conditions have shifted, for better and worse, while retailers have reacted. As such, it is a good time to review the forecasts.
- The retailing industry entered 2010 after a very difficult 18 months. Despite the negativity surrounding consumer spending, retailing continues to prosper in a number of markets, defying gravity and many people’s expectations.
- The strongest headwinds have been felt in developed markets. While 2010 has not brought the continued downturn in spending that many expected, the fear of a “double dip” recession may limit spending in the short term.
- As emerging markets have begun to lose some of the risk premium acquired during the downturn, so Western retailers have looked to expand their presence or look for takeover targets. If the global economy strengthens these may come to fruition.
- Grocery retailers have performed best in 2010 and forecasts have remained in line with expectations. Consumers’ need to eat was always going to insulate them more from a downturn in spending, which has been borne out by reality.
- The channels to see the strongest recovery, and in some cases surprisingly so, have been in non-grocery retailing. Sales were more robust than expected in markets such as the USA and the UK, where channels saw recovery after a difficult 2009.
- Internet retailing, which was already forecast to grow strongly in 2010, has received positive support from store-based retailers promoting their online offering as a way for consumers to enjoy the best value offering.
- Although 2010 has not been as bad as many feared, concern remains for many economies, with a solid recovery not under way yet. Given this, retailers may cheer consumers’ continued spending, but should still be wary of what may come in 2011.
Countries that have weathered the downturn
GDP growth forecast for 2010:
- China 10.0%
- India 8.8%
- Uzbekistan 8.0%
- Nigeria 7.0%
- Taiwan 6.5%
- Peru 6.3%
- Vietnam 6.0%
- Indonesia 6.0%
GDP growth forecast for 2010:
- Latvia -3.5%
- Greece -3.0%
- Venezuela -2.6%
- Ireland -1.0%
- Lithuania -0.6%
- Spain -0.4%
- Hungary -0.2%
Channels that have weathered the downturn:
- Hypermarkets
- Discounters
- Department stores
- Variety stores
- Warehouse clubs
- Health and beauty specialist retailers
- Pet shops and superstores
- Home shopping
- Direct selling
Channels that continue to struggle:
- Convenience stores
- Independent small grocers
- Forecourt retailers
- Clothing and footwear specialist retailers
- Home and garden specialist retailers
- Electronics and appliance specialist retailers
- Audio-visual stores
- Internet Retailing
Forecast Revisit: How Will Retailing Develop in 2010 and 2011 Global Briefings are a series of in-depth strategic reports in PowerPoint format, that examine key issues affecting market performance at a global level.
Why buy this report
- Get insight into trends in market performance
- Pinpoint growth sectors and identify factors driving change
- Identify market and brand leaders and understand the competitive environment
Regional coverage:
Western Europe; Eastern Europe; North America; Latin America; Asia-Pacific; Oceania; Africa and the Middle East
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