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Ukraine Telecommunications Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Sep 2010, Pages: 110
This latest report on Ukraine’s telecommunications market incorporates new operator data for the second quarter and first six months of 2010. The most recent figures suggest that the mobile subscriber base grew in the second quarter of 2010, reversing the trend witnessed in the first quarter. In addition to having a highly saturated market, the recent negative growth in the mobile sector has been influenced by the country’s weak economic climate. Furthermore, Ukraine’s mobile operators have been engaging in the mass deduction of inactive pre-paid customers from their reported totals. In the second quarter of 2010, only TeliaSonera-backed Astelit continued to experience negative customer growth. However, the falling customer base refers to registered mobile users, not active customers. Astelit reported that its active customer base remained stable at around 8mn in Q210.
At the end of June, Ukraine’s largest mobile operator continued to be Kyivstar, with a mobile market share of almost 40%. Russia’s MTS was the second-largest cellco, with a mobile market share of 32%. At the time of writing, Kyivstar’s planned merger with third-ranked VimpelCom remained the subject of ongoing controversy. Ukraine’s anti-monopoly committee has been re-examining the merger plans in response to complaints from rival Ukrainian cellco Astelit. The committee was expected to announce its final decision on the merger by mid-September 2010.
The authors now predict that Ukraine’s mobile subscriber base will see slight growth in 2010.
They stress, however, that further customer deductions are likely and that long-term growth rates are not expected to be high. Meanwhile, their new fixed-line forecast for Ukraine is based on the assumption that the sector shrank by 1.1% in 2009. Ukraine’s fixed-line market has been growing in recent years. However, negative growth in 2009 appears to have resulted from several factors, including the impact of economic recession, the growth of fixed-to-mobile substitution and the increasing popularity of voice over internet protocol (VoIP) services. It is thought that fixed-line incumbent operator Ukrtelecom bore the brunt of fixed-line losses in 2009.
In addition to containing revised forecast figures for the development of Ukraine’s fixed-line sector, this quarter’s report contains improved expectations for the long-term development of broadband services in Ukraine. The authors’ new broadband subscriber forecast envisages stronger growth from 2010 onwards. Increased competition and lower prices are expected to propel growth forward. They also expect mobile broadband services to grow in popularity and secure a larger share of the overall market.
This quarter sees the introduction of new standardised terminology to describe the different categories surveyed within the authors Telecoms Business Environment Ratings. This quarter sees Ukraine fall from 15th to 16th position in the Business Environment Ratings table for Central and Eastern Europe. The lower position is the result of a weaker rating in the Industry Rewards category.
Ukraine Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Ukraine's telecommunications industry.
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