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Lebanon Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q4 2010

The Lebanon Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, pharmaceutical associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Lebanon's pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.

In BMI's Q410 Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Business Environment Ratings (BERs), the Middle East & Africa (MEA) region scored a total of 45.4 out of a possible 100. Despite scoring the lowest of all regions for the quarter, BMI notes that the attractiveness of the region to pharmaceutical firms stems from the fact that its countries fall within the emerging market category – which we believe will drive growth in the pharmaceuticals & healthcare industry – boosting the risk and reward scores assigned to markets in the region in the long term. The importance of emerging markets to large multinational drugmakers cannot be overstated and BMI's Pharmaceutical Expenditure Model reveals that five-year compound annual growth rates (CAGRs) in traditional markets such as the US, Western Europe and Japan are all in the low single figures. Meanwhile, the US dollar five-year CAGRs for the main emerging markets – Brazil, Russia, India and China – are expected to post double-digit increases.

In BMI’s updated BER matrix for Q410, Lebanon is placed 13th of the 19 markets surveyed in the MEA region. Lebanon’s position in the table reflects the fact that its pharmaceutical market is viewed as one of the least promising among its Arab peers, due to its small size and a significant amount of counterfeit activity.

In 2009, Lebanon’s pharmaceutical market was worth LBP1,307bn (US$870mn) and by 2014 we calculate the medicines market will be worth LBP2,053bn (US$1.37bn), equating to a CAGR of 9.46% in local currency terms and 9.51% in US dollar terms. Over our extended forecast period to 2019, we calculate the drug market will experience a CAGR of 7.58% in local currency terms and 8.34% in US dollar terms, reaching a value of LBP2,714bn (US$1.94bn).

In 2009, per-capita pharmaceutical sales reached a value of US$206 and by 2014, we expect this to increase to US$312. By 2019, we forecast this figure will have increased further to US$426. Pharmaceutical sales as a percentage of GDP reached a value of 2.71% of GDP in 2009. In June 2010, with the aim of containing healthcare costs, Health Minister Mohammad Jawad Khalifeh announced that price cuts of up to 23% will be implemented on 118 pharmaceuticals, mainly for cardiovascular and hypertension diseases. We note that while drug pricing controls in the country could have a negative impact on the prescription drugs sector, they will increase volume sales. The lack of a price control system in the country has been a fundamental cause of high drug prices, with an estimated 21.5% of household income spent on drugs. With large sections of the population not covered by insurance for drugs, pharmaceutical expenditure is a significant burden, especially on low-income sections of the country.
Executive Summary

SWOT Analysis
Lebanon Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Industry SWOT
Lebanon Political SWOT
Lebanon Economic SWOT
Lebanon Business Environment SWOT

Business Environment Ratings

Table: Middle East and Africa – Regional Pharmaceuticals Business Environment Ratings For Q410

Lebanon – Market Summary

Regulatory Regime
Public Sector Procurement
Intellectual Property Regime
IP Shortcomings
Parallel Imports
Counterfeit Drugs
Free Trade Agreements
Pricing and Reimbursement Issues

Industry Developments

HIV/AIDS Infections
Healthcare Sector
Hospital Sector
Healthcare Insurance
Healthcare Sector Reforms
Retail Pharmacy Sector
Regional Developments
Clinical Trials
Medical Devices
Industry Forecast Scenario
Overall Market Forecast
Key Growth Factors – Industry
Key Growth Factors – Macroeconomic
Table: Lebanon – Economic Activity
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
Patented Drug Market Forecast
Generic Drug Market Forecast
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
Medical Device Market Forecast
Other Healthcare Data Forecasts
Key Risks to BMI Forecasts

Competitive Landscape

Pharmaceuticals Sector
Company Profiles

Indigenous Companies
Chalhoub Pharmaceuticals (CHAPHA)
Alfa Laboratories
Multinational Companies
Merck & Co
Johnson & Johnson
GlaxoSmithKline (GSK)
Abbott Laboratories

Country Snapshot: Lebanon Demographic Data

Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts
Pharmaceuticals Business Environment Ratings
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Ratings Overview
Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Components

Forecast Tables
Companies Mentioned
- Chalhoub Pharmaceuticals (CHAPHA)
- Alfa Laboratories
- Algorithm
- Codipha
- Pfizer
- Novartis
- Merck & Co
- Johnson & Johnson
- Sanofi-Aventis
- GlaxoSmithKline (GSK)
- Abbott Laboratories
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