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India Freight Transport Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Sep 2010, Pages: 48
The India Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, freight transportation associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on India's freight transportation industry.
The Indian government's tentative steps towards privatising the country's rail freight sector marks what BMI believes is a long-overdue transition for the industry. The Ministry of Railways' release of the R3i (Railways' Infrastructure for Industry Initiative) policy which is aimed at attracting private sector participation in rail connectivity projects so that additional rail transport capacity can be created and the white paper by Traffic Commercial Directorate of Indian Railways outlining a number of schemes designed to encourage private sector participation in the rail freight sector and to promote greater use of railways for cargo transportation in place of road haulage are two examples of such steps. In our view, developing states will increasingly move towards privatisation in order to manage the growing demands of the country's trade sector.
From an Indian perspective, BMI believes adopting a public-private partnership (PPP) model is more essential than ever. The explosive growth of the country's middle class has led to a steady increase in consumer spending on manufactured goods. The inadequacies of the rail freight sector and a reliance on the country's road network for road haulage have resulted in under capacity as well as bottlenecks at ports and in-land distribution centres. Although the latest measures imply a tentative switch towards private sector management of the rail freight network geared towards 'non conventional' or bulk goods, the anticipated success of the measures are likely to encourage increased corporate participation and, in particular, the growth of privately-operated container freight services over the next few years. BMI's Freight Transport desk's forecast for India's air freight shows a y-o-y growth of cargo traffic in FY2010/11. We see India's air freight volume growing by 8.43% y-o-y this year to 502,044 tonnes, faster than in the FY2009/10, when it increased by an estimated 1.35%.
We expect cargo handled at two of India's key ports, the Jawaharlal Nehru Port (JNPT) and Port of Chennai (POC), to grow at a moderate to good rate in the FY 2010/11. In general tonnage terms, JNPT will be out in front, with 12.3% growth to 68.22mn tonnes, following a good FY2009/10 performance when the port was largely able to sidestep the effects of the international recession (volumes grew 6.03% to 60.77mn tonnes last year). This year, total volume at Port of Chennai will gain a slightly more subdued 9.3% to 66.75mn tonnes. Last year volumes there increased by 6.2% to 61.06mn tonnes.
For the rail freight sector we also expect an accelerated growth in volumes this year with an increase of 6.98% to 551,828mn tonnes/km in FY2010/11, after a growth by an estimated 0.75% in FY2009/10. The pace should slow down in FY2011/12 with an increase of 5.66%.
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