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United Arab Emirates Infrastructure Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Sep 2010, Pages: 88
The United Arab Emirates Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, infrastructure associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the United Arab Emirates' infrastructure industry.
Our core views regarding the UAE remain the same. While we have become more bearish in our estimates, we still maintain that the fundamental driver of growth will be Abu Dhabi, while we also see opportunities for continued growth in water, power and large industrial construction. South Korean firms have established a strong presence in the UAE and recent moves ensure that they strengthen that foothold.
- Abu Dhabi firmly remains in the forefront of infrastructure developments, with the implementation of the long-term Vision 2030 plan fuelling growth for the infrastructure sector
- With the absence of any tangible official data since 2008, estimates and forecasts remain bearish, underpinned by BMI’s bearish outlook for wider macroeconomic activity and therefore the fixed investment prospects over the coming quarters
- The precedent-setting Mafraq- Ghweifat road tender, the first of its kind in the UAE, is expected to be concluded by the end of 2010
- A memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed between the First Gulf Bank (FGB) and the Construction Association of Korea (CAK) is the latest evidence of South Korea's growing presence in the region. Meanwhile KEPCO said it will begin the construction of the nuclear power plant in December 2010.
In BMI’s ‘Q410 UAE Infrastructure Report’ we have decreased our forecast for industry value real growth for 2010 to 0.66% from a previous forecast of 3.3%. As such, we forecast that industry value will reach AED71.6bn (US$19.48bn). This growth will be fuelled largely by Abu Dhabi and to a lesser extent by transport infrastructure projects in Dubai, such as – the Green Line metro project, the Al-Maktoum International Airport and the expansion of Dubai Airport.
Official annual data for 2009 are yet to be published, but a study from the Abu Dhabi statistics centre found that steel prices in Abu Dhabi witnessed an average decline of 44% and concrete prices fell by 13.5% over 2009. This reinforces our estimates for 2009, which indicate that construction industry value real growth slowed quite abruptly over the same period.
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