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Australia Defence and Security Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Oct 2010, Pages: 83
The Australia Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Australia's defence and security industry.
Australia’s latest Federal election, which was held on August 21, 2010, has resulted in the return of the Australian Labor Party (ALP), under Prime Minister Julia Gillard, albeit as a minority government. The government relies on the support of one Green and three independent members of the House of Representatives (i.e. the lower house of Australia’s parliament) to hold office with a majority of just one seat. Meanwhile, the Greens will decisively control the balance of power in the Senate (i.e. the upper house) from the middle of 2011.
In general terms, the ALP’s views of foreign affairs and defence issues are broadly consistent with those of the Liberal/ National Party coalition. However, they are not necessarily consistent with those of the Greens. The implication is that it will be much harder for the government to take major new initiatives in foreign affairs and defence than was the case prior to the election – or indeed, during the previous coalition administration under Prime Minister John Howard (1996-2007).
Australia’s defence costs come from two areas. The first is the recurrent cost to support a small, professional, all-volunteer defence force, especially one with current international deployments in Iraq, Afghanistan, Timor Leste and the Solomon Islands. The second issue is the altogether more complex question of capital expenditure. Here there are competing demands from the three services against a limited budget that cannot accommodate all the demands made on it. The key direction is set from time to time by a defence white paper that attempts to establish the strategic outlook so that equipment and force needs can be put into perspective and prioritised. The earlier 2000 paper was replaced last year by the 2009 white paper, Defending Australia in the Asia Pacific Century: Force 2030. This document is now being questioned in light of the new political situation. Some procrastination and some delays in decision making seem almost inevitable.
Despite the probability of some delays and some changed priorities, many of the main assets of both the navy and the air force will have to be replaced. The ageing fleet of F111’s has now been taken out of service, to be replaced – on an interim basis – by new F/A18F Super Hornets; The previously announced expansion of the submarine program from six to twelve boats, on the other hand, is less certain. Much of the new equipment will be imported and the United States has traditionally been the largest supplier to the Australian defence forces. Local offset programs mean that work will be generated locally and the need to meet offset requirements makes participation by new players more complicated. A number of the major international players, including Boeing, Raytheon, Thales and BAE, have had a presence in Australia for many years. Local shipbuilder Austal is something of an exception. Australian based and owned, it also operates shipyards in the US that build vessels for the US Navy.
Economically, we have mixed views on the Australian position and outlook. While the country fared better than most in avoiding recession following the global financial crisis, we still believe there is a substantial risk of the economy suffering a double-dip recession. We are particularly cautious regarding the risk that the over-heated property market may collapse, leaving the local banks badly exposed.
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