Australia Defence and Security Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, October 2010, Pages: 83
The Australia Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Australia's defence and security industry.
Australia’s latest Federal election, which was held on August 21, 2010, has resulted in the return of the Australian Labor Party (ALP), under Prime Minister Julia Gillard, albeit as a minority government. The government relies on the support of one Green and three independent members of the House of Representatives (i.e. the lower house of Australia’s parliament) to hold office with a majority of just one seat. Meanwhile, the Greens will decisively control the balance of power in the Senate (i.e. the upper house) from the middle of 2011.
In general terms, the ALP’s views of foreign affairs and defence issues are broadly consistent with those of the Liberal/ National Party coalition. However, they are not necessarily consistent with those of the Greens. The implication is that it will be much harder for the government to take major new initiatives in foreign affairs and defence than was the case prior to the election – or indeed, during the previous coalition administration under Prime Minister John Howard (1996-2007).
Australia’s defence costs come from two areas. The first is the recurrent cost to support a small, professional, all-volunteer defence force, especially one with current international deployments in Iraq, Afghanistan, Timor Leste and the Solomon Islands. The second issue is the altogether more complex question of capital expenditure. Here there are competing demands from the three services against a limited budget that cannot accommodate all the demands made on it. The key direction is set from time to time by a defence white paper that attempts to establish the strategic outlook so that equipment and force needs can be put into perspective and prioritised. The earlier 2000 paper was replaced last year by the 2009 white paper, Defending Australia in the Asia Pacific Century: Force 2030. This document is now being questioned in light of the new political situation. Some procrastination and some delays in decision making seem almost inevitable.
Despite the probability of some delays and some changed priorities, many of the main assets of both the navy and the air force will have to be replaced. The ageing fleet of F111’s has now been taken out of service, to be replaced – on an interim basis – by new F/A18F Super Hornets; The previously announced expansion of the submarine program from six to twelve boats, on the other hand, is less certain. Much of the new equipment will be imported and the United States has traditionally been the largest supplier to the Australian defence forces. Local offset programs mean that work will be generated locally and the need to meet offset requirements makes participation by new players more complicated. A number of the major international players, including Boeing, Raytheon, Thales and BAE, have had a presence in Australia for many years. Local shipbuilder Austal is something of an exception. Australian based and owned, it also operates shipyards in the US that build vessels for the US Navy.
Economically, we have mixed views on the Australian position and outlook. While the country fared better than most in avoiding recession following the global financial crisis, we still believe there is a substantial risk of the economy suffering a double-dip recession. We are particularly cautious regarding the risk that the over-heated property market may collapse, leaving the local banks badly exposed.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Australia Security SWOT
Australia Defence SWOT
Australia Political SWOT
Australia Economic SWOT
Australia Business Environment SWOT
Global Political Outlook
Global Hotspots
Table: Election Timetable, H210-2011
United States: Obama To Be Tested By Mid-Term Elections
Latin America: Beyond Lula
Western Europe: All About Austerity
Central Europe: New Governments To Be Tested
South-East Europe: Turkey's Ongoing Evolution
Russia And The Former Soviet Union: Focus On Security
Middle East: Ongoing Challenges
Sub-Saharan Africa: The Election Conundrum
Asia: The Usual Risks Prevail
Wild Cards To Watch
South East Asia Security Overview
The Strategic Outlook for the 2010s
Poor Governance and Political Instability
Main Islamist Militant Groups In South East Asia
Other Regional Threats
Political Overview
Domestic Politics
Long-Term Political Outlook
Security Risk Ratings
BMI’s Security Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
Australia’s Security Risk Rating
City Terrorism Rating
Table: BMI’s Asia City Terrorism Index
Security Overview
Internal Security Situation
External Security Situation
Armed Forces And Government Spending
Armed Forces
Table: Regional Armed Forces, 2010 Forecast (including conscripted, ‘000 personnel)
Defence Budget
International Deployments
Weapons of Mass Destruction
Market Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
Arms Trade Overview
Procurement Trends And Developments
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Australia’s Armed Forces, 2007-2014 (personnel)
Table: Australia’s Defence Sector, 2006-2014
Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario
Australia – Economic Activity
Company Profiles
Austal
BAE Systems Australia
Boeing Australia
Raytheon Australia
Thales Australia
Country Snapshot: Australia Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2012
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Defence Industry
City Terrorism Rating
Table: City Terrorism Rating Methodology
Sources
- Austal
- BAE Systems Australia
- Boeing Australia
- Raytheon Australia
- Thales Australia
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