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China Defence and Security Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Oct 2010, Pages: 91
The China Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on China's defence and security industry.
China has made much progress over the last decade in modernising its military. This has resulted in a major reduction in infantry numbers, an increase in air force and navy and much greater reliance on high tech weaponry. For 2010 total military personnel number 2.3 million, this still makes the Chinese army the largest in the world. This is a result of a historical approach that relied heavily on its large population rather than technology. This strategy has changed radically in recent years, with China instead pursuing a path focused on high tech equipment and reduced troop numbers.
With the increasing influence of capitalism in the country, there has been a stronger crossover between military development and commercial venture. This has created benefits for the old military- industrial system that was ill placed to compete, based as it was on antiquated ex-Soviet equipment designs. According to the Commission on Science Industry and Technology for National Defence (COSTIND), there are 450 defence production lines producing civilian goods in China. This has allowed developments such as the first Chinese passenger plane C919. This development has in turn increased the national skills base and helped to develop a more mature market for high-tech development.
The government faces a number of small scale societal and political issues but, given the vast size of the country, it remains remarkably stable overall. As wealth has increased throughout the country, organised crime has grown: however, it still remains some way behind that seen in developed states such as Japan where the Yakuza are present.
In the political realm, Tibet and Xinjiang present some problems for stability, as terrorism and the threat of manipulation by outside forces hostile to the Chinese government exacerbate the state of affairs. Xinjiang, in particular, is under pressure as it lies in the oil rich north east, and the native Muslim population have been radicalised by foreign parties. China is extremely wary of either province attempting to declare independence, and currently regards both areas as potential ‘Kosovos’ should rebellions grow out of control.
Economic recovery has proven robust to date, with strong 2009 figures adding to confidence in the country. Disagreements with the US over currency markets have revealed the strength of China’s position. The US has pressured for a revaluation of the yuan in order to help its trade deficit - but the key issue is lack of US saving leading to a stronger Chinese trading position and a prospering economy in the near term outlook. Over the longer term, there is still potential for a double-dip slowdown, although the risks of this are lessening as the remnants of the economic crisis clear.
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