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China Defence and Security Report Q4 2010
Description:
The China Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on China's defence and security industry.
China has made much progress over the last decade in modernising its military. This has resulted in a major reduction in infantry numbers, an increase in air force and navy and much greater reliance on high tech weaponry. For 2010 total military personnel number 2.3 million, this still makes the Chinese army the largest in the world. This is a result of a historical approach that relied heavily on its large population rather than technology. This strategy has changed radically in recent years, with China instead pursuing a path focused on high tech equipment and reduced troop numbers.
With the increasing influence of capitalism in the country, there has been a stronger crossover between military development and commercial venture. This has created benefits for the old military- industrial system that was ill placed to compete, based as it was on antiquated ex-Soviet equipment designs. According to the Commission on Science Industry and Technology for National Defence (COSTIND), there are 450 defence production lines producing civilian goods in China. This has allowed developments such as the first Chinese passenger plane C919. This development has in turn increased the national skills base and helped to develop a more mature market for high-tech development.
The government faces a number of small scale societal and political issues but, given the vast size of the country, it remains remarkably stable overall. As wealth has increased throughout the country, organised crime has grown: however, it still remains some way behind that seen in developed states such as Japan where the Yakuza are present.
In the political realm, Tibet and Xinjiang present some problems for stability, as terrorism and the threat of manipulation by outside forces hostile to the Chinese government exacerbate the state of affairs. Xinjiang, in particular, is under pressure as it lies in the oil rich north east, and the native Muslim population have been radicalised by foreign parties. China is extremely wary of either province attempting to declare independence, and currently regards both areas as potential ‘Kosovos’ should rebellions grow out of control.
Economic recovery has proven robust to date, with strong 2009 figures adding to confidence in the country. Disagreements with the US over currency markets have revealed the strength of China’s position. The US has pressured for a revaluation of the yuan in order to help its trade deficit - but the key issue is lack of US saving leading to a stronger Chinese trading position and a prospering economy in the near term outlook. Over the longer term, there is still potential for a double-dip slowdown, although the risks of this are lessening as the remnants of the economic crisis clear.
China has made much progress over the last decade in modernising its military. This has resulted in a major reduction in infantry numbers, an increase in air force and navy and much greater reliance on high tech weaponry. For 2010 total military personnel number 2.3 million, this still makes the Chinese army the largest in the world. This is a result of a historical approach that relied heavily on its large population rather than technology. This strategy has changed radically in recent years, with China instead pursuing a path focused on high tech equipment and reduced troop numbers.
With the increasing influence of capitalism in the country, there has been a stronger crossover between military development and commercial venture. This has created benefits for the old military- industrial system that was ill placed to compete, based as it was on antiquated ex-Soviet equipment designs. According to the Commission on Science Industry and Technology for National Defence (COSTIND), there are 450 defence production lines producing civilian goods in China. This has allowed developments such as the first Chinese passenger plane C919. This development has in turn increased the national skills base and helped to develop a more mature market for high-tech development.
The government faces a number of small scale societal and political issues but, given the vast size of the country, it remains remarkably stable overall. As wealth has increased throughout the country, organised crime has grown: however, it still remains some way behind that seen in developed states such as Japan where the Yakuza are present.
In the political realm, Tibet and Xinjiang present some problems for stability, as terrorism and the threat of manipulation by outside forces hostile to the Chinese government exacerbate the state of affairs. Xinjiang, in particular, is under pressure as it lies in the oil rich north east, and the native Muslim population have been radicalised by foreign parties. China is extremely wary of either province attempting to declare independence, and currently regards both areas as potential ‘Kosovos’ should rebellions grow out of control.
Economic recovery has proven robust to date, with strong 2009 figures adding to confidence in the country. Disagreements with the US over currency markets have revealed the strength of China’s position. The US has pressured for a revaluation of the yuan in order to help its trade deficit - but the key issue is lack of US saving leading to a stronger Chinese trading position and a prospering economy in the near term outlook. Over the longer term, there is still potential for a double-dip slowdown, although the risks of this are lessening as the remnants of the economic crisis clear.
Contents:
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
China Defence Industry SWOT
China Security SWOT
China Political SWOT
China Economic SWOT
China Business Environment SWOT
Global Political Outlook
Global Hotspots
Table: Election Timetable, H210-2011
United States: Obama To Be Tested By Mid-Term Elections
Latin America: Beyond Lula
Western Europe: All About Austerity
Central Europe: New Governments To Be Tested
South-East Europe: Turkey's Ongoing Evolution
Russia And The Former Soviet Union: Focus On Security
Middle East: Ongoing Challenges
Sub-Saharan Africa: The Election Conundrum
Asia: The Usual Risks Prevail
Wild Cards To Watch
North East Asia Security Overview
North East Asia: The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s
The Geopolitical Importance of North East Asia
Flashpoints and Faultiness in North East Asia
The Taiwan Strait
Disputed Islands
The Evolution Of North East Asia
Political Overview
Domestic Politics
Long-Term Political Outlook
Security Risk Ratings
BMI’s Security Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
China’s Security Risk Rating
City Terrorism Rating
Table: BMI’s Asia City Terrorism Index
Security Overview
Internal Security Situation
External Security Situation
Shanghai Cooperation Organisation
China-US Relations
China-Japan Relations
China-Taiwan Relations
China-Tibet Relations
China-Korea Relations
China-Russia Relations
China-India Relations
EU Arms Embargo
Armed Forces and Government Spending
Armed Forces
Table: Regional Armed Forces, 2010 Forecast (including conscripted, ‘000 personnel)
Joint Operations And Exercises
International Deployments
Table: China’s Deployments
Peace Mission 2005
Weapons Of Mass Destruction
Market Overview
Recent Changes
Arms Trade Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
Procurement Trends And Developments
Competitive Landscape
Table: Key Players In China’s Defence Sector
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: China’s Military Personnel, 2007-2014 (‘000)
Table: China’s Government Defence Expenditure, 2007-2014
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Macroeconomic Outlook
China – Economic Activity
Company Profiles
Chengdu Aircraft Company
China Aviation Industry Corporation
China National Nuclear Corporation
China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation
China South Industries Group Corporation
Country Snapshot: China Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2005-2012
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Defence Industry
City Terrorism Rating
Table: City Terrorism Rating Methodology
Sources
SWOT Analysis
China Defence Industry SWOT
China Security SWOT
China Political SWOT
China Economic SWOT
China Business Environment SWOT
Global Political Outlook
Global Hotspots
Table: Election Timetable, H210-2011
United States: Obama To Be Tested By Mid-Term Elections
Latin America: Beyond Lula
Western Europe: All About Austerity
Central Europe: New Governments To Be Tested
South-East Europe: Turkey's Ongoing Evolution
Russia And The Former Soviet Union: Focus On Security
Middle East: Ongoing Challenges
Sub-Saharan Africa: The Election Conundrum
Asia: The Usual Risks Prevail
Wild Cards To Watch
North East Asia Security Overview
North East Asia: The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s
The Geopolitical Importance of North East Asia
Flashpoints and Faultiness in North East Asia
The Taiwan Strait
Disputed Islands
The Evolution Of North East Asia
Political Overview
Domestic Politics
Long-Term Political Outlook
Security Risk Ratings
BMI’s Security Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
China’s Security Risk Rating
City Terrorism Rating
Table: BMI’s Asia City Terrorism Index
Security Overview
Internal Security Situation
External Security Situation
Shanghai Cooperation Organisation
China-US Relations
China-Japan Relations
China-Taiwan Relations
China-Tibet Relations
China-Korea Relations
China-Russia Relations
China-India Relations
EU Arms Embargo
Armed Forces and Government Spending
Armed Forces
Table: Regional Armed Forces, 2010 Forecast (including conscripted, ‘000 personnel)
Joint Operations And Exercises
International Deployments
Table: China’s Deployments
Peace Mission 2005
Weapons Of Mass Destruction
Market Overview
Recent Changes
Arms Trade Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
Procurement Trends And Developments
Competitive Landscape
Table: Key Players In China’s Defence Sector
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: China’s Military Personnel, 2007-2014 (‘000)
Table: China’s Government Defence Expenditure, 2007-2014
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Macroeconomic Outlook
China – Economic Activity
Company Profiles
Chengdu Aircraft Company
China Aviation Industry Corporation
China National Nuclear Corporation
China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation
China South Industries Group Corporation
Country Snapshot: China Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2005-2012
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Defence Industry
City Terrorism Rating
Table: City Terrorism Rating Methodology
Sources
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