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Greece Defence and Security Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Oct 2010, Pages: 78
The Greece Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Greece's defence and security industry.
Protests against the Greek government’s austerity measures are continuing and look set to remain a feature of the political landscape for some months, sustaining a moderate but significant level of internal unrest. Truck drivers shut down parts of Greece’s two busiest motorways and clashed with police on September 22 as their protests reached their 10th day, as reported by AP. However, the government has stood by the changes, which are part of an intended wave of reforms to end ‘closed shop’ practices in a number of professions.
Workers at state-owned Hellenic Railways, farm workers and local government employees were also on strike in one week alone, The austerity measures are not only angering those in work, but increasing unemployment and damaging government revenues. Young people – arguably more likely to protest – have been particularly affected. Many experts expect the situation to worsen considerably. Plans to drive forward with budget cuts and labour reforms therefore seem almost certain to trigger further demonstrations, though whether professionals will be as willing to resort to roughhouse tactics as other groups (including students) have been remains to be seen. Some 4,000 police were deployed in the second city, Thessaloniki, against potential outbreaks of violence, on the second weekend of September, and deployed tear gas on a group of several hundred youths who had broken away from a largely peaceful protest, as reported by Reuters that month. Police are likely to be kept busy for months to come, and the risk of violence – though probably on a low level will be ever-present.
The government’s attempts to tackle economic and social problems are having a direct and indirect effect on the armed forces. While military spending will be scaled back, Defence Minister Evangelos Venizelos has suggested that Greece may extend the military service of conscripts without job prospects on discharge. This could prove a burden on a severely-strapped defence budget and on regular forces needed to train and protect conscripts. In other countries, military service has been axed to lower spending requirements and to reduce the pressure on professional soldiers.
The external situation is characterised by lower risk of conflict with neighbour Turkey, but potential rising risk over the long term from other threats in the Mediterranean Basin and beyond. NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen has urged the deployment of a new European missile defence system to protect the continent from the threat of Iranian attack, to which Greece is seen as particularly vulnerable, as reported by the Daily Telegraph in September 2010. The Islamic Republic’s longest-range ballistic missiles, which include the Shahab-3 and Qiam-1, have a range of around 2,500 miles, enabling them to hit targets in Greece and Turkey. While the Islamic Republic is seen as being ever closer to developing military nuclear technology, its leadership would likely be exceptionally wary of deploying it apart from as a desperate measure of self-defence or in the case that an exceptionally hardline and rogue faction seized power in Tehran. The risk to Greece of nuclear attack, while it exists, is therefore at present exceptionally low. Nonetheless, the country’s position in the Eastern Mediterranean does make it very strategically important over the long-term.
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