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India Defence and Security Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Oct 2010, Pages: 97
The India Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on India's defence and security industry.
India’s security situation is complex. It involves internal threats, principally from Maoist rebels based in the poorer eastern part of the country, frosty relations with Pakistan, its nuclear armed neighbour and rivalry with regional power China.
The headline issue for the immediate future will be to guarantee security for the October 2010 Commonwealth Games to be held in New Delhi. Following the terrorist attacks in Mumbai and the attack on the Sri Lankan cricket team in Pakistan all participating countries are nervous about the risk to their athletes and spectators attending the games. The profile any successful attack would achieve makes the risk of such an effort even greater.
Internally, there has been a Maoist insurgency since 1967. It began in the West Bengal village of Naxalbari, which gives its name to the Naxalite movement. The core issue is the inequality in incomes between the wealthier and poorer (mostly eastern) areas of India. A decade of spectacular economic success has in anything worsened the situation. A widely publicised large scale offensive by Indian forces against the Maoist rebels has largely failed. Naxalite bombings have in fact become more frequent. Fatalities related to the Maoist insurgency reportedly rose from 650 to over 1,000 in the year to May 2010.
The Naxalites have threatened multinational companies and this puts the companies and their workers in the eastern part of the country at increased risk. The always difficult relationship with Pakistan has been described as ‘glacial’ since the Mumbai terrorist attacks in December 2008. India is demanding that Pakistan do more to prevent terrorists based in Pakistan attacking targets in India. In this India is seeking a level of guarantees on cross-border security that the government in Islamabad is simply not in a position to deliver.
Instability in Pakistan is of great concern to India most particularly since Pakistan possesses nuclear weapons. The fact that China has reiterated it intention to help Pakistan build two nuclear reactors in the Punjab has especially alarmed India (and the US),
The relationship with China, at one level, is a great success. The level of bilateral trade has ballooned in recent years and we expect it to continue growing rapidly over the whole of the next decade as demand fuelled by increasing consumer affluence surges. On the other hand India and China are regional rivals. China’s close ties with Pakistan will remain a point of contention.
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