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Japan Defence and Security Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Oct 2010, Pages: 81
The Japan Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Japan's defence and security industry.
Japan has one of the largest defence budgets in the world, which adds substantial strain to government spending. Following the ruling Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ)'s poor showing in the July 11 Upper House elections, it is unlikely that proposed tax hikes will be passed, meaning military budgets are unlikely to be achieved.
A large proportion of current spending is based around the Patriot Advanced Capability fully-layered missile defence system, costing up to JPY1tm. The system has been repeatedly delayed due to lack of funding and in the current political situation it is extremely unlikely that funds will be found. Further cooperation between Japanese and European firms looks likely to expand, although this will almost certainly take place within the context of deepening ties with American partners. In particular, the BMD programme, which will involve the transfer and licensing of several highly sensitive technologies, will ensure that the US and Japanese industry relationship will weather any future uncertainties. Japan's strong cyclical bounce in Q110 should not be confused with the beginnings of a structural economic recovery. Indeed, with private demand expected to remain sluggish, the Chinese-led export boost likely to dampen, and sovereign concerns potentially heading eastwards, first quarter growth is likely to be as good as it gets. As such, we continue to see below-consensus expansion of 1.9% and 0.9% in 2010 and 2011, respectively.
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