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Pakistan Defence and Security Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Oct 2010, Pages: 83
The Pakistan Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Pakistan's defence and security industry.
The core security issue facing Pakistan is undoubtedly the militant insurgency that was initially based in the northern tribal lands near the Afghan border but is now reaching into other, central, areas of the country. Despite gains by the Pakistan military in both the Swat Valley and South Waziristan, there seems to be an increase in terrorist attacks across the country. In all probability, Pakistan is facing a multi-year struggle against a committed enemy. The most spectacular raid was the June 7 attack on a NATO convoy just outside Islamabad. There had been attacks on convoys in the past but only by insurgents operating in their home areas in the northwest.
Pakistan is a pivotal country for global security, owing to its large population, Muslim identity, links with Islamist terrorism, adjacency to Afghanistan and its nuclear arsenal. The troubles in Pakistan are inextricably linked with the conflict in Afghanistan. Taliban forces cross into the border regions of Pakistan, which they see as a relative safe haven.
Due to its strategic importance, Pakistan's foreign allies will do everything they can to ensure its stability. As we argue in this report, while we see difficulties we do not anticipate a complete breakdown of the state or the installation of a fundamentalist Islamic regime. On the other hand another military coup cannot be ruled out if the civilian government fails to maintain control.
Tensions will remain with neighbouring India because, with the best will in the world, the government in Islamabad will not be able to prevent cross-border attacks into India.
At the heart of the issues facing the country is economic poverty. Pakistan's per capita GDP is very low at US$1,000 and income inequalities are high, both vertically (i.e between different segments of society) and horizontally (between different provinces and regions). The recent devastating floods will only add to the misery endured by many in its surging population.
Pakistan has a well developed and quite professional military. Its industrial base produces much of the hardware needed by the defence forces including heavy tanks, missile systems, small arms and ammunition. Its shipbuilding industry produces surface craft for the navy and assembles its submarines. Economic growth is hampered by a number of factors including the insurgency which deters capital investment, especially foreign investments, plus a chronic lack of electricity generation capacity. While GDP growth is estimated to have come in at 4.1% for the year ended June 30 2010 on the back of a recovery from the global financial crisis, we are forecasting a more subdued 2.4% for this fiscal year rising to just 2.8% in 2011/2012. Even these numbers will now be threatened by the agriculture losses caused by the recent floods.
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