Pakistan Defence and Security Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, October 2010, Pages: 83
The Pakistan Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Pakistan's defence and security industry.
The core security issue facing Pakistan is undoubtedly the militant insurgency that was initially based in the northern tribal lands near the Afghan border but is now reaching into other, central, areas of the country. Despite gains by the Pakistan military in both the Swat Valley and South Waziristan, there seems to be an increase in terrorist attacks across the country. In all probability, Pakistan is facing a multi-year struggle against a committed enemy. The most spectacular raid was the June 7 attack on a NATO convoy just outside Islamabad. There had been attacks on convoys in the past but only by insurgents operating in their home areas in the northwest.
Pakistan is a pivotal country for global security, owing to its large population, Muslim identity, links with Islamist terrorism, adjacency to Afghanistan and its nuclear arsenal. The troubles in Pakistan are inextricably linked with the conflict in Afghanistan. Taliban forces cross into the border regions of Pakistan, which they see as a relative safe haven.
Due to its strategic importance, Pakistan's foreign allies will do everything they can to ensure its stability. As we argue in this report, while we see difficulties we do not anticipate a complete breakdown of the state or the installation of a fundamentalist Islamic regime. On the other hand another military coup cannot be ruled out if the civilian government fails to maintain control.
Tensions will remain with neighbouring India because, with the best will in the world, the government in Islamabad will not be able to prevent cross-border attacks into India.
At the heart of the issues facing the country is economic poverty. Pakistan's per capita GDP is very low at US$1,000 and income inequalities are high, both vertically (i.e between different segments of society) and horizontally (between different provinces and regions). The recent devastating floods will only add to the misery endured by many in its surging population.
Pakistan has a well developed and quite professional military. Its industrial base produces much of the hardware needed by the defence forces including heavy tanks, missile systems, small arms and ammunition. Its shipbuilding industry produces surface craft for the navy and assembles its submarines. Economic growth is hampered by a number of factors including the insurgency which deters capital investment, especially foreign investments, plus a chronic lack of electricity generation capacity. While GDP growth is estimated to have come in at 4.1% for the year ended June 30 2010 on the back of a recovery from the global financial crisis, we are forecasting a more subdued 2.4% for this fiscal year rising to just 2.8% in 2011/2012. Even these numbers will now be threatened by the agriculture losses caused by the recent floods.
Executive Summary
Pakistan Security SWOT
Pakistan Defence Industry SWOT
Pakistan Political SWOT
Pakistan Economic SWOT
Pakistan Business Environment SWOT
Global Political Outlook
Global Hotspots
Table: Election Timetable, H210-2011
United States: Obama To Be Tested By Mid-Term Elections
Latin America: Beyond Lula
Western Europe: All About Austerity
Central Europe: New Governments To Be Tested
South-East Europe: Turkey's Ongoing Evolution
Russia And The Former Soviet Union: Focus On Security
Middle East: Ongoing Challenges
Sub-Saharan Africa: The Election Conundrum
Asia: The Usual Risks Prevail
Wild Cards To Watch
South Asia Security Overview
The Strategic Outlook for the 2010s
South East Asia In The Global Context
Main Islamist Militant Groups In South East Asia
Other Regional Threats
The Future of Myanmar
Political Overview
Domestic Politics
Long-Term Political Outlook
Security Risk Ratings
BMI’s Security Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
City Terrorism Rating
Table: BMI’s Asia City Terrorism Index
Security Overview
Internal Security Situation
Insurgency
Need For Police Reform
Tribal Cooperation
External Security Situation
Border Disputes
Afghanistan
Kashmir
Armed Forces And Government Spending
Armed Forces
Table: Regional Armed Forces, 2010 Forecast (including conscripted, ‘000 personnel)
Deployments And Exercises
Table: Pakistan’s Deployments
Weapons of Mass Destruction
Table: Pakistan’s Nuclear-Capable Ballistic Missile Arsenal
Nuclear Developments
Table: Exports From Pakistan
Market Overview
Arms Trade Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
Procurement Trends and Developments
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Pakistan’s Armed Forces, 2007-2014 (‘000 personnel)
Table: Pakistan’s Government Defence Expenditure, 2007-2014
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Macroeconomic Outlook
Pakistan – Economic Activity
Company Profiles
Air Weapons Complex
Dr AQ Khan Laboratories
Heavy Industries Taxila
Pakistan Aeronautical Complex
Pakistan Ordnance Factories
Country Snapshot: Pakistan Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2000-2012
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Defence Industry
City Terrorism Rating
Table: Methodology
Sources
- Air Weapons Complex
- Dr AQ Khan Laboratories
- Heavy Industries Taxila
- Pakistan Aeronautical Complex
- Pakistan Ordnance Factories
Product Samples
A sample for this product is available. Please Login/Register to download this sample.
Customers who bought this item also bought
All rights reserved. © Copyright 2013 Research and Markets WWW4
Terms and Conditions Privacy Policy Publishers Employment Opportunities Site Map Link to us Webmaster Affiliate Network
