South Korea Defence and Security Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, October 2010, Pages: 79
The South Korea Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on South Korea's defence and security industry.
South Korea faces real risks in its security environment and as such it defence spending continues to grow. Expenditure is expected to increase to US$32bn in 2010 – a substantial increase from 2009 levels of US$26bn.
North Korea presents the greatest threat at present with ongoing nuclear disputes still causing friction. Despite the disputes having been a feature of regional security for over 20 years, there has been little resolution. Testing of long-range Taepodong missiles by North Korea as recently as 2009 has added concern for analysts. Meanwhile, the sinking of the South Korean corvette Cheonan on March 26, 2010, as the result of a torpedo attack by the North Korean navy has seriously exacerbated the situation. The defence industry in South Korea is in robust shape, however, thanks to years of increasing investment and international collaboration. The T-50 Golden Eagle supersonic trainer jet are expected to play an essential part of the country’s export mix. The jet, built jointly by Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI) and Lockheed Martin of the US, has received numerous orders to date with many headed for Iraq. The joint military drills between the United States and South Korea, launched in response to North Korea's sinking of a South Korean warship, are set to heighten regional tensions and further strain USChina military ties. What is more our short-term political rating for North Korea is still high at 73.5, reflecting our belief that policy continuity will prevail, at least in the initial aftermath of Kim Jong Il's retirement or death. Our long-term political ratings (LTPR) is much lower, at 55.1, because we do not envisage such a totalitarian regime being maintained ad infinitum.
Although we expect robust economic activity momentum to support private sector employment over the coming months, we maintain a forecast of a 3.9% unemployment rate by end-2010. The defence industry has been a key driver of economic recovery with the government boosting manufacturing production by spending 60% of budgeted defence expenditure in the first half of the current fiscal year,
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
South Korea Security SWOT
South Korea Defence Industry SWOT
South Korea Political SWOT
South Korea Economic SWOT
South Korea Business Environment SWOT
Global Political Outlook
Global Hotspots
Table: Election Timetable, H210-2011
United States: Obama To Be Tested By Mid-Term Elections
Latin America: Beyond Lula
Western Europe: All About Austerity
Central Europe: New Governments To Be Tested
South-East Europe: Turkey's Ongoing Evolution
Russia And The Former Soviet Union: Focus On Security
Middle East: Ongoing Challenges
Sub-Saharan Africa: The Election Conundrum
Asia: The Usual Risks Prevail
Wild Cards To Watch
North East Asia Security Overview
The Strategic Outlook for The 2010s
Flashpoints and Faultlines in North East Asia
The Taiwan Strait
Disputed Islands
The Evolution of North East Asia
Political Overview
Domestic Politics
Foreign Policy
Long-Term Political Outlook
Security Risk Analysis
BMI’s Security Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
South Korea’s Security Risk
City Terrorism Rating
Table: BMI’s Asia City Terrorism Index
Security Overview
Internal Security Situation
External Security Situation
Armed Forces and Government Spending
Armed Forces
Table: Regional Armed Forces, 2010 Forecast (including conscripted, ‘000 personnel)
International Deployments
Table: South Korea’s Deployments
Weapons of Mass Destruction
Market Overview
Arms Trade Overview
Industry Trends and Developments
Procurement Trends And Developments
Competitive Landscape
Table: South Korea’s Defence Sector Key Players
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: South Korea’s Armed Forces, 2007-2014 (‘000 personnel)
Table: South Korea’s Government Defence Expenditure, 2007-2014
Industry Future
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Macroeconomic Forecast
South Korea – Economic Activity
Company Profiles
Doosan Heavy Industries & Construction
Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering (DSME)
Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI)
Samsung Thales
Country Snapshot: South Korea Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Defence Industry
City Terrorism Rating
Table: Methodology
Sources
- Doosan Heavy Industries & Construction
- Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering (DSME)
- Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI)
- Samsung Thales
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