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Uganda Defence and Security Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Oct 2010, Pages: 82
The Uganda Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Uganda's defence and security industry.
The recent trend for growing defence budgets in Uganda could be about to end. The Finance ministry has announced that it intends to cut UGX21.4bn (US$9.5mn) from the current defence budget of UGX531bn (US$236mn). The Defence Minister and elements of the ruling National Resistance Movement have, however, been critical of this move and have stated that it will place increasing stress on the Ugandan military – particularly with regards to the ‘food, special operations and development’ defence budgets. This announcement from the Finance Ministry contradicts reports in The East African concerning growing tensions between the Ugandan government and international donors over increased defence spending. According to the reports, spending is expected to increase due to growing commitments to the AMISOM mission in Somalia. Despite an agreed defence spending ceiling of 2% of GDP, the figure currently stands at 2.2%. Any move to increase the proportion of defence spending is likely to antagonise donors, perhaps risking a repeat of the British government's decision to suspend aid as a result of 2004 defence spending increases.
The likelihood of cutting defence budgets may be reduced by the World Cup bombings. In July 2010, two suicide bombers attacked crowds watching the World Cup in Kampala. The first attack at a restaurant killed 15 people, while the second, at the famous Kyadondo Rugby Club, killed 49. Al-Shabaab, the Somalian islamist group, claimed responsibility for the attack. The attacks came after a call for attacks in Uganda by the Al-Shabaab leadership in retaliation for Ugandan dominance of the AMISOM mission to Somalia.
The Ugandan government has offered to send up to 10,000 more troops to Somalia to support the AMISOM mission in the country. This offer has been made contingent on the level of US funding for the deployment. General Nyakairima commented that if the US did not increase funding then Uganda may have to rethink its entire commitment to the international mission in support of the Somalian government. While the US has made no specific commitments, it is likely that US support will be increased after Assistance Secretary of State for African Affairs Johnnie Carson promised that the US will deliver more resources for the mission. Even without increased support, it is expected that an AMISOM offensive against the Al-Shabab islamist group in Mogadishu will soon be undertaken, as the government and international mission continue to make slow but steady progress in taking control of the city.
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