Qatar Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, October 2010, Pages: 96
Qatar Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Qatar's oil and gas industry.
The latest Qatar Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 3.28% of Middle Eastern (ME) regional oil demand by 2014, while providing 6.95% of supply. Regional oil use of 4.98mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to 7.15mn b/d in 2009. It should average 7.42mn b/d in 2010 and then rise to around 8.38mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was 22.83mn b/d in 2001 and averaged 24.41mn b/d in 2009. After a projected 24.86mn b/d in 2010, it is set to rise to 26.67mn b/d by 2014. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 17.85mn b/d. This total eases to an estimated 17.44mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 18.30mn b/d by 2014. Iraq has the greatest export growth potential, followed by Qatar.
In terms of natural gas, the region consumed 379.2bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2009, with demand of 481.4bcm targeted for 2014, representing 22.1% growth. Production of 407.2bcm in 2009 should reach 588.9bcm in 2014 (+26.2%), which implies net exports rising to 108.0bcm by the end of the period. Qatar in 2010 will have consumed an estimated 5.89% of the region’s gas, with its market share forecast at 7.19% by 2014. It is set to have contributed an estimated28.93% to 2010 regional gas production and, by 2014, will account for 28.36% of supply.
For 2010 as a whole, we continue to assume an average OPEC basket price of US$83.00/bbl, +36.4% year-on-year (y-o-y). Risk is now clearly on the downside, thanks to the slow progress made during June. However, a full-year outturn in excess of US$80 remains a strong possibility and we see no need to review our assumptions at this point. The 2010 US WTI price is now put at US$87.63/bbl. BMI is assuming an OPEC basket price of US$85.00/bbl in 2011, with WTI averaging US$89.74. Our central assumption for 2012 and beyond is an OPEC price averaging US$90.00/bbl, delivering WTI at just over US$95.00.
For 2010, the BMI assumption for premium unleaded gasoline is an average global price of US$95.45/bbl. The overall y-o-y rise in 2010 gasoline prices is put at 36%. Gasoil in 2010 is expected to average US$93.23/bbl. The full-year outturn represents a 35% increase from the 2009 level. For 2010, the annual jet price level is forecast to be US$95.90/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$83.53/bbl, up 41% from the previous year’s level. Qatar’s real GDP is assumed by BMI to have risen by 15.1% in 2010, with average annual growth of 8.2% in 2010-2014. We expect oil demand to rise from an estimated 218,000b/d in 2010 to 275,000b/d in 2014. State-owned Qatar Petroleum (QP) negotiates exploration and production (E&P) agreements, shares in upstream projects, and has 50% of oil and 40% of gas production. It has signed agreements with many of the leading international oil companies (IOCs), particularly for gas development and export projects. Our estimates assume 1.65mn b/d of 2010 oil and liquids production, rising to 1.85mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. Gas production should reach 167bcm by 2014, up from an estimated 135bcm in 2010. Consumption is expected to rise from an estimated 23bcm to 35bcm by the end of the forecast period, allowing for exports of 132bcm.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Qatari oil and gas liquids production of 34.2%, with volumes rising steadily to 2.18mn b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2019 is set to increase by 69.0%, with growth slowing to an assumed 6.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 368,000b/d by 2019. Gas production is expected to rise from an estimated 135bcm to 190bcm by the end of the period. With 2010-2019 demand growth of 127%, this provides an export capability rising from an estimated 112bcm to 137bcm. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
Qatar holds second place, just behind the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in BMI’s composite Business Environment (BE) ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. However, the country holds outright first place, three points head of the UAE and Iraq, in BMI’s updated upstream Business Environment ratings. We see little risk over the short term of Qatar having its position challenged, thanks largely to the country’s extraordinary gas wealth. The country’s score benefits from a sound country risk profile, healthy output growth prospects, high reserves-to-production ratios (RPR) and an attractive licensing regime. Qatar is now fifth, above Iraq, in BMI’s updated downstream Business Environment ratings, with a few high scores but longer-term progress up the rankings unlikely. It has remained ahead of Iraq and Oman, in spite of low scores for refining capacity, oil demand, retail site intensity, population, nominal GDP and private company involvement in the downstream segment. Generally, healthy country risk factors bolster the overall score.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Qatar Political SWOT
Qatar Economic SWOT
Qatar Business Environment SWOT
Qatar Energy Market Overview
Global Oil Market Review
Quarterly Trends
Deepwater Turbulence
Global Oil Market Outlook
Waiting For The Wind To Change
Oil Price Forecasts
Oil Supply, Demand And Price Outlook
Short-Term Demand Outlook
Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Short-Term Supply Outlook
Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d)
Longer-Term Supply And Demand
Oil Price Assumptions
Table: Crude Price Assumptions 2010
Table: Oil Price Forecasts
Regional Energy Market Overview
Oil Supply And Demand
Table: Middle East Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Table: Middle East Oil Production (000b/d)
Oil: Downstream
Table: Middle East Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)
Gas Supply And Demand
Table: Middle East Gas Consumption (bcm)
Table: Middle East Gas Production (bcm)
Liquefied Natural Gas
Table: Middle East LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm)
Business Environment Ratings
Middle East Region
Composite Scores
Table: Regional Composite Business Environment Rating
Upstream Scores
Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating
Qatar Upstream Rating – Overview
Qatar Upstream Rating – Rewards
Qatar Upstream Rating – Risks
Downstream Scores
Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating
Qatar Downstream Rating – Overview
Qatar Downstream Rating – Rewards
Qatar Downstream Rating – Risks
Business Environment
Legal Framework
Infrastructure
Labour Force
Foreign Investment Policy
Tax Regime
Security Risk
Industry Forecast Scenario
Oil And Gas Reserves
Oil Supply And Demand
Gas Supply And Demand
LNG
Refining And Oil Products Trade
Revenues/Import Costs
Table: Qatar Oil And Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts
Other Energy
Table: Qatar Other Energy – Historical Data And Forecasts
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Long-Term Oil And Gas Outlook
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
Table: Refineries in Qatar
GTL
Table: GTL Plants in Qatar
LNG Terminals
Table: LNG Terminals In Qatar
Gas Pipelines
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Qatar – Economic Activity
Competitive Landscape
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies In The Qatari Oil And Gas Sector
Overview/State Role
Licensing And Regulation
International Energy Relations
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Key Downstream Player
Company Monitor
Qatar Petroleum (QP)
ExxonMobil Oil Qatar
Total Qatar
Maersk Oil – Summary
Occidental Petroleum – Summary
Qatargas – Summary
RasGas – Summary
Chevron – Summary
Sasol – Summary
Shell – Summary
ConocoPhillips – Summary
Marathon Oil – Summary
Anadarko Petroleum – Summary
Eni – Summary
OVL – Summary
Cosmo Oil – Summary
Wintershall – Summary
GDF Suez – Summary
CNOOC – Summary
PetroChina – Summary
Service Companies
Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts
Regional Oil Demand
Table: Middle East Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Regional Oil Supply
Table: Middle East Oil Production (000b/d)
Regional Refining Capacity
Table: Middle East Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)
Regional Gas Demand
Table: Middle East Gas Consumption (bcm)
Regional Gas Supply
Table: Middle East Gas Production (bcm)
Qatar Country Overview
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts
Glossary Of Terms
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Energy Industry
Cross checks
Oil And Gas Ratings Methodology
Table: Structure Of BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings
Indicators
Table: BMI’s Upstream Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Methodology
Table: BMI’s Downstream Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Methodology
Sources
- Qatar Petroleum
- ExxonMobil Oil Qatar
- Total Qatar
- Maersk Oil
- Occidental Petroleum
- Qatargas
- RasGas
- Chevron
- Sasol
- Shell
- ConocoPhillips
- Marathon Oil
- Anadarko Petroleum
- Eni
- OVL
- Cosmo Oil
- Wintershall
- GDF Suez
- CNOOC
- PetroChina
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