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Slovenia Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Oct 2010, Pages: 75
Slovenia Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Slovenia's oil and gas industry.
BMI’s latest Slovenia Oil & Gas Report forecasts that the country will account for 1.06% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2014, while making no meaningful contribution to supply. CEE regional oil use of 5.42mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 will rise to an estimated 6.02mn b/d in 2010. It should increase to around 6.68mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was 8.89mn b/d in 2001, and should in 2010 average an estimated 13.67mn b/d. It is set to rise to 14.44mn b/d by 2014. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 3.47mn b/d. This total had risen to an estimated 7.65mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 7.76mn b/d by 2014. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have the greatest production growth potential, although Russia will remain the key exporter.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2010 will consume an estimated 638.6bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 728.8bcm targeted for 2014, representing 14.1% growth. Production of an estimated 788.4bcm in 2010 should reach 936.4bcm in 2014, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 149.8bcm in 2010 to 207.5bcm by the end of the period. Slovenia has no significant share of regional gas consumption or production.
For 2010 as a whole, we continue to assume an average OPEC basket price of US$83.00/bbl, +36.4% year-on-year (y-o-y). Risk is now clearly on the downside, thanks to the slow progress made during June. However, a full-year outturn in excess of US$80 remains a strong possibility and we see no need to review our assumptions at this point. The 2010 US WTI price is now put at US$87.63/bbl. BMI is assuming an OPEC basket price of US$85.00/bbl in 2011, with WTI averaging US$89.74. Our central assumption for 2012 and beyond is an OPEC price averaging US$90.00/bbl, delivering WTI at just over US$95.00.
For 2010, the BMI assumption for premium unleaded gasoline is an average global price of US$95.45/bbl. The overall y-o-y rise in 2010 gasoline prices is put at 36%. Gasoil in 2010 is expected to average US$93.23/bbl. The full-year outturn represents a 35% increase from the 2009 level. For 2010, the annual jet price level is forecast to be US$95.90/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$83.53/bbl, up 41% from the previous year’s level. Slovenian real GDP is assumed by BMI to rise by 2.0% in 2010. We are assuming average annual growth of 2.9% in 2010-2014. Beyond the expected weakness of 2009/2010, oil consumption growth is forecast at an annual rate of 3%, reaching 71,000b/d by 2014. Gas consumption reached an estimated 1.0bcm in 2009, with up to 0.4bcm being produced from domestic sources. Demand is expected to have reached 1.3bcm by 2014, with domestic production potentially down to 0.2bcm and imports totalling 1.1bcm.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Slovenian oil consumption of 34.3%, with import volumes rising steadily from an estimated 61,000b/d to 82,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Gas consumption is expected to climb from an estimated 1.0bcm to 1.7bcm by 2019, met largely by imports of 1.6bcm. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
Slovenia now takes 15th and last place, behind Croatia and Slovakia, in BMI’s composite Business Environment (BE) ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It occupies 15th and last place in BMI’s updated upstream Business Environment ratings, thanks to its extremely limited hydrocarbons resources. Its score is six points below that of nearest rival, the Czech Republic, but the growth outlook for oil and gas is unimpressive and comes from an exceptionally low base. Country risk factors work in Slovenia’s favour, but there is little chance of an improvement capable of taking it past the other regional laggards. Slovenia is near the bottom of the league table in BMI’s updated downstream Business Environment ratings, holding 12th place, above Slovakia. There are no particularly high scores and progress further up the rankings seems unlikely over the medium term. There are poor scores for refining capacity, oil and gas demand, population and nominal GDP.
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