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United States Food and Drink Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Oct 2010, Pages: 91
Business Monitor International's United States Food and Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, food and drink associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the United States' food and drink industry.
The latest quarter has continued to support our view for a muted recovery in the US consumer sector, with consumption growth expected to be weak in both 2010 and 2011. However, over the longer term the US looks better positioned than many developed markets to deliver growth. A relatively young population and high levels of immigration mean the country is not faced with the same demographic problems as many markets in Western Europe. Meanwhile the dynamism of the US consumer is well established and can be expected to return to prominence once the economy begins to show signs of a sustained recovery.
Headline Industry Data ! 2010 per capita food consumption = +1.7%; forecast to 2014 = +8.3%
- 2010 alcoholic drink sales = +1.9%; forecast to 2014 = +9.5%
- 2010 soft drink sales = +3% ; forecast to 2014 = +17%
- 2010 mass grocery retail sales = +2.8%; forecast to 2014 = +12.9%
Key Macroeconomic Data
- 2010 Real GDP growth = +2.8% (2009, -2.4%)
- 2010 Consumer Price Index = +1.0% chg y-o-y (period average) (2009, +-0.35%)
- 2010 Unemployment Rate = 10.4% (period average) (2009, 9.3%)
Key Company Trends And Developments
Small stores the new battle ground – Growing demand for convenience is one of our core long-term trends in line with demographic changes including more single person households and more women in the workplace. This expected growth has prompted the country’s major retailers to focus on expanding their small format networks and is also leading to increased consolidation in the sector. The battle is currently on to acquire Casey's General Store while in June 2010, Wal-Mart was granted approval for a major expansion in the US city of Chicago. The move is part of the firm’s plan to increase its presence in urban parts of the country and represents a change in direction for Wal-Mart, which has established its dominance of the US retail sector through big-box, out of town outlets.
Targeting of Hispanic Community– In September 2010, MegaMex Foods, a joint venture established in 2009 between US-based Hormel Foods and Mexican Herdez del Fuerte, announced that it had acquired US-based burrito maker Don Miguel. It is MegaMex’s first acquisition and can be taken as a sign of the success that the venture has had in marketing Hispanic products to consumers in the US. With the Hispanic population of the US set to grow strongly over the next five years, BMI has identified the trend as a key growth area for food producers, with the possibility of achieving emerging market levels of growth within the low-risk business environment of the US.
Key Risks to Outlook
Slowdown in China – Overly accommodative fiscal and monetary stimuli in China have led to an overheating that could result in a sharp withdrawal in 2011 which would put downwards pressure on US growth.
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