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Cambodia Power Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Oct 2010, Pages: 49
The Cambodia Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Cambodia's power industry.
The new Cambodia Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for just 0.04% of Asia Pacific regional power generation by 2014, with a slight theoretical supply surplus that may eventually provide the basis for exports to neighbouring countries. BMI’s Asia Pacific power generation assumption for 2010 is 7,698 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 4.2% over the previous year. We are forecasting an increase in regional generation to 9,234TWh by 2014, representing a rise of 20.0% in 2010-2014.
In 2010, Asia Pacific thermal power generation will have totalled an estimated 6,133TWh, accounting for 79.7% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2014 is 7,216TWh, implying a 17.7% growth that reduces the market share of thermal generation to 78.1%. This is thanks largely to environmental concerns promoting renewable sources, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Cambodia’s thermal generation in 2010 is an estimated 1.9TWh, or 0.03% of the regional total. By 2014 the country is expected to account for 0.04% of thermal generation in the region.
For Cambodia, the direct burning of wood and other organic fuels accounts for an estimated 74.5% of 2010 PED, followed by oil at 25.1%. Hydro makes a very small contribution, while coal and gas do not yet feature in the energy mix. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 5,236mn toe by 2014, representing 20.6% growth from the estimated 2010 level. Cambodia’s estimated 2010 market share of 0.15% is set to rise to 0.18% by 2014.
Cambodia’s hydro-electric demand is forecast to reach 0.7TWh by 2014, with its share of the Asia Pacific hydro market rising to 0.06% over the period.
Cambodia is ranked 16th and last, behind even Taiwan, in BMI’s updated Power Business Environment Ratings, thanks largely to the growth potential of power consumption and energy demand, offset by low scores in several other categories. It has the long-term potential to overtake Taiwan and South Korea further above it.
BMI forecasts Cambodian real GDP growth averaging 5.2% a year in 2010-2014, with the 2010 assumption being an increase of 4.6%. The population is expected to expand from 15.1mn to 16.1mn by 2014, with per capita GDP and electricity consumption set to increase 38% and 74% respectively. Electricity consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 1.9TWh in 2010 to 3.4TWh in 2014, providing a slight theoretical supply surplus if generation grows at no less than our assumed average annual rate of 17.4%. There is, however, a risk of electricity shortages if the power industry cannot deliver adequate new capacity as demand soars.
In 2010-2019 we forecast an increase in Cambodian electricity generation of 414.2%, which is top of the range for the Asia Pacific region. This equates to 159.2% in 2014-2019, up from 98.4% in 2010-2014. PED growth in 2014-2019 is set to rise from the expected 2010-2014 level of 41.2%, reaching 53.9% and representing 117.2% for the entire forecast period. Hydro consumption is expected to rise from virtually zero to 5.8TWh between 2010 and 2019, with thermal power generation forecast to increase by 116% over the same period. More detailed long-term power forecasts can be found later in this report.
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