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China Power Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Oct 2010, Pages: 71
The China Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on China's power industry.
The new China Power Report from BMI forecasts that by 2014 the country will account for 54.08% of Asia Pacific regional power generation and will have a growing theoretical generation surplus. BMI’s Asia Pacific power generation assumption for 2010 is 7,698 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 4.2% over the previous year. We are forecasting an increase in regional generation to 9,234TWh by 2014, representing a rise of 20.0% in 2010-2014.
In 2010, Asia Pacific thermal power generation will have totalled an estimated 6,133TWh, accounting for 79.7% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2014 is 7,216TWh, implying a 17.7% growth that reduces the market share of thermal generation to 78.1%. This is thanks largely to environmental concerns promoting renewable sources, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. China’s thermal generation in 2010 will have been an estimated 3,234TWh, or 52.72% of the regional total. By 2014, the country is expected to account for 56.26% of thermal generation.
Coal was the dominant fuel for China in 2010, accounting for an estimated 70.6% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by oil at 18.6%, gas at 3.8%, hydro at 6.2% and nuclear with a 0.7% market share. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 5,236mn toe by 2014, representing 20.6% growth from the estimated 2010 level. China’s estimated 2010 market share of 53.46% is set to rise to 55.90% by 2014. China’s estimated 75TWh of nuclear demand in 2010 is forecast to reach 145TWh by 2014, with its share of the regional nuclear market rising from 13.81% to 20.16% over the period.
China is now ranked equal second, alongside Japan and behind only Australia, in BMI’s updated Power Business Environment Ratings, thanks to its vast market size and excellent growth prospects. It has this quarter fallen back in line with Japan but could ultimately challenge Australia, which is five points ahead. China has a comfortable eight-point lead over its nearest genuine rivals, Vietnam and India. Country risk factors offset some of the industry’s strength, but China seems destined to remain close to the head of the league table for the foreseeable future.
BMI is forecasting Chinese real GDP growth averaging 7.92% per annum between 2010 and 2014, with the 2010 estimate being an increase of 8.80%. Population is expected to expand from 1.34bn to 1.37bn over the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to increase 52% and 23% respectively. The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 3,869TWh in 2010 to 4,853TWh by the end of the forecast period. This should leave theoretical surplus generation (before system losses) rising from an estimated 80TWh in 2010 to 141TWh by 2014, assuming 6.0% average annual growth in electricity output during 2010-2014.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting a 66.1% increase in Chinese electricity generation, which is one of the highest projected rates for the Asia Pacific region. This equates to growth of 31.3% in the 2014-2019 period, up from 26.5% in 2010-2014. PED growth is set to rise from 26.1% in 2010-2014 to 26.8%, representing 59.9% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 60% in hydro-power use during 2010-2019 is a key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 63% between 2010 and 2019, with nuclear consumption expected to increase by 247%. More details of the long-term BMI power forecasts can be found later in this report.
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