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India Power Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Oct 2010, Pages: 75
The India Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on India's power industry.
BMI’s latest India Power Report forecasts that the country will account for 11.85% of Asia Pacific regional power generation by 2014, with a significant and stable theoretical generation surplus. However, power wastage and system inefficiencies may require occasional imports. BMI’s Asia Pacific power generation assumption for 2010 is 7,698 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 4.2% over the previous year. We are forecasting an increase in regional generation to 9,234TWh by 2014, representing a rise of 20.0% in 2010-2014.
In 2010, Asia Pacific thermal power generation will have totalled an estimated 6,133TWh, accounting for 79.7% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2014 is 7,216TWh, implying a 17.7% growth that reduces the market share of thermal generation to 78.1%. This is thanks largely to environmental concerns promoting renewable sources, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. India’s thermal generation in 2010 will have been an estimated 737TWh, or 12.02% of the regional total. By 2014, India is expected to account for 11.56% of regional thermal generation.
For India, coal is the dominant fuel, in 2010 accounting for an estimated 51.1% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by oil at 29.8%, gas at 10.1% and hydro-power at 6.3%. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 5,236mn toe by 2014, representing 20.6% growth from the estimated 2010 level. India’s estimated 2010 market share of 11.26% is set to rise to 11.57% by 2014. The country’s estimated 24TWh of nuclear demand in 2010 is forecast to reach 55TWh by 2014, with its share of the Asia Pacific nuclear market rising from 5.2% to 7.65% over the period.
India is now ranked equal fourth alongside Vietnam in BMI’s updated Power Business Environment Ratings, thanks to its vast market size and excellent growth prospects. The gap between India and China (in second place) is eight points. While China is expected eventually to pull away and challenge Australia at the top of the table, India may be able to catch Japan (equal second place) during the next several quarters. Country risk factors offset some of the industry’s strength, but the country seems destined over the longer term to shadow China near the top of the table.
BMI is now forecasting Indian real GDP growth averaging 8.00% per annum between 2010 and 2014, with the 2010 assumption being 7.80%. The population is expected to expand from 1.17bn to 1.23bn over the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to increase by 93% and 21% respectively. The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 682TWh in 2010 to 871TWh by the end of the forecast period, theoretically meaning an excess in generation which we forecast to have reached 224TWh in 2014 (assuming 2.7% average annual growth in electricity generation in 2010-2014).
Between 2010 and 2019 we are forecasting an increase in Indian electricity generation of 49.6%, which is above the average for the Asia Pacific region. This equates to 24.3% in the 2014-2019 period, up from 20.4% in 2010-2014. PED growth is set to rise from 23.9% in 2010-2014 to 26.4%, representing 56.6% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 62% in hydro-power use during 2010-2019 is a key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 34% between 2010 and 2019, with nuclear consumption up by 296%. More details of the long-term BMI power forecasts can be found at the end of this report.
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