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Indonesia Power Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Oct 2010, Pages: 61
The Indonesia Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Indonesia's power industry.
The new Indonesia Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 2.10% of Asia Pacific regional power generation by 2014. Owing to chronic system inefficiencies and wastage, the country struggles to provide adequate generation for its needs. BMI’s Asia Pacific power generation assumption for 2010 is 7,698 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 4.2% over the previous year. We are forecasting an increase in regional generation to 9,234TWh by 2014, representing a rise of 20.0% in 2010-2014.
In 2010, Asia Pacific thermal power generation will have totalled an estimated 6,133TWh, accounting for 79.7% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2014 is 7,216TWh, implying a 17.7% growth that reduces the market share of thermal generation to 78.1%. This is thanks largely to environmental concerns promoting renewable sources, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Indonesia’s thermal generation in 2010 is estimated at 147TWh, or 2.40% of the regional total. By 2014, the country is expected to account for 2.47% of the region’s thermal generation. Oil is the dominant fuel in Indonesia, accounting for an estimated 47.0% of primary energy demand (PED) in 2010, followed by gas at 25.6%, coal at 23.4% and hydro at 2.3%. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 5,236mn toe by 2014, representing 20.6% growth from the estimated 2010 level. Indonesia’s estimated 2010 market share of 3.09% is set to fall to 2.96% by 2014. Indonesia is moving ahead slowly with controversial plans to build its first nuclear power plant, which could be operational by 2017.
In BMI’s updated Power Business Environment Ratings, Indonesia is now ranked equal sixth, alongside Pakistan. This reflects its low level of energy import dependence and its healthy power consumption growth prospects. However, several country risk factors offset the industry strength, and the country may struggle to keep up with Pakistan over the longer term. The Philippines and Malaysia, just one point below, also pose a threat over the medium term.
BMI is now forecasting Indonesian real GDP growth averaging 5.72% per annum between 2010 and 2014, with a 2010 assumption of 5.20%. Population is expected to expand from 240mn to over 250mn over the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to increase by 63% and 18% respectively. The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 135TWh in 2010 to 167TWh by the end of the forecast period, theoretically meaning a slight theoretical surplus in generation, assuming 5.0% annual average growth in electricity generation during 2010-2014. Chronic system inefficiencies and wastage mean the country will continue to struggle to provide adequate generation.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Indonesian electricity generation of 55.3%, which is above average for the Asia Pacific region. This equates to 28.4% in the 2014-2019 period, up from 21.0% in 2010-2014. PED growth is set to rise from 15.8% in 2010-2014 to 25.5%, representing 45.3% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 23% in hydro-power use during 2010-2019 is a major element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 58% between 2010 and 2019. More details of the long-term BMI power forecasts can be found at the end of this report.
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