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Malaysia Power Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Oct 2010, Pages: 67
The Mlaysia Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Malaysia's power industry.
The new BMI Malaysia Power Report forecasts that the country will account for 1.44% of Asia Pacific regional power generation by 2014, with a broadly balanced domestic market. BMI’s Asia Pacific power generation assumption for 2010 is 7,698 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 4.2% over the previous year. We are forecasting an increase in regional generation to 9,234TWh by 2014, representing a rise of 20.0% in 2010-2014.
In 2010, Asia Pacific thermal power generation will have totalled an estimated 6,133TWh, accounting for 79.7% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2014 is 7,216TWh, implying a 17.7% growth that reduces the market share of thermal generation to 78.1%. This is thanks largely to environmental concerns promoting renewable sources, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Malaysia’s thermal generation in 2010 is an estimated 99.5TWh, or 1.62% of the regional total. By 2014, the country is expected to account for 1.57% of thermal generation.
Malaysia’s dominant fuel is gas, which accounts for an estimated 50.6% of 2010 primary energy demand (PED), followed by oil at 39.1%, coal at 7.3% and hydro with a 2.4% share of PED. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 5,236mn toe by 2014, representing 20.6% growth from the estimated 2010 level. Malaysia’s estimated 2010 market share of 1.31% is set to fall to 1.21% by 2014. Malaysia’s estimated 10.1TWh of hydro demand in 2010 is forecast to reach 13.9TWh by 2014, with its share of the Asia Pacific hydro market rising from 1.03% to 1.13%. There is no commercial nuclear industry. Malaysia now shares ninth place with the Philippines in BMI’s updated Power Business Environment Ratings, in spite of its low level of energy import dependence and good power consumption growth prospects. Certain country risk factors offset some of the industry strength, but the country is in a good position in the near term to keep clear of Hong Kong and Singapore below.
BMI is now forecasting Malaysian real GDP growth averaging 5.02% per annum (pa) between 2010 and 2014, with an increase of 6.40% assumed for 2010. Population is expected to expand from 27.9mn to 29.6mn over the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to increase 26% and 12% respectively. The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 111TWh in 2010 to 131TWh by the end of the forecast period, minimising any theoretical generation surplus, assuming 4.5% average annual growth in electricity generation during 2010-2014.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Malaysian electricity generation of 53.2%, which is above average for the Asia Pacific region. This equates to 27.4% in the 2014-2019 period, up from 20.2% in 2010-2014. PED growth is set to rise from 11.1% in 2010-2014 to 14.3% representing 26.9% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 102% in hydro-power use during 2010-2019 is a key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 41% between 2010 and 2019. More details of the long-term BMI power forecasts can be found later in this report.
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