Pakistan Power Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, October 2010, Pages: 62
The Pakistan Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Pakistan's power industry.
The new Pakistan Power Report forecasts Pakistan will account for 1.17% of Asia Pacific regional power generation by 2014, with a theoretical generation surplus before the country’s substantial transmission losses are taken into account. BMI’s Asia Pacific power generation assumption for 2010 is 7,698 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 4.2% over the previous year. We are forecasting an increase in regional generation to 9,234TWh by 2014, representing a rise of 20.0% in 2010-2014.
In 2010, Asia Pacific thermal power generation will have totalled an estimated 6,133TWh, accounting for 79.7% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2014 is 7,216TWh, implying a 17.7% growth that reduces the market share of thermal generation to 78.1%. This is thanks largely to environmental concerns promoting renewable sources, hydroelectricity and nuclear generation. Pakistan’s thermal generation in 2010 is an estimated 64.2TWh, or 1.05% of the regional total. By 2014, the country is expected to account for 0.91% of regional thermal generation.
Gas is the dominant fuel in Pakistan, accounting for an estimated 50.9% of primary energy demand (PED) in 2010, followed by oil at 31.0%, hydroelectric energy at 9.6% and coal with a 6.9% share. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 5,236mn toe by 2014, representing 20.6% growth from the estimated 2010 level. Pakistan’s estimated 2010 market share of 1.55% is set to ease to 1.54% by 2014. The country’s estimated 2.9TWh of nuclear demand in 2010 is forecast to reach 5.0TWh by 2014, with its share of the Asia Pacific nuclear market rising from an estimated 0.53% to 0.70% over the period.
Pakistan now shares sixth place with Indonesia in BMI’s updated Power Business Environment Ratings, thanks to its relatively high level of renewables (mostly hydro) usage and healthy energy demand growth prospects. Several country risk factors offset the industry strength, but the country is in a good position to keep clear of Thailand and the Philippines below.
BMI now forecasts Pakistan real GDP growth averaging 3.28% a year between 2010 and 2014, with the 2010 growth assumption being 4.10%. The population is expected to expand from 173mn to 190mn, with GDP per capita increasing by 7% and electricity consumption per capita rising by 4%. Power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 76TWh in 2010 to 87TWh by the end of the forecast period, which provides a theoretical generation surplus (before transmission losses, etc), assuming 3.0% average annual growth in electricity generation during 2010-2014.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Pakistani electricity generation of 29.7%, which is below average for the Asia Pacific region.
This equates to 15.3% in the 2014-2019 period, up from 12.6% in 2010-2014. PED growth is set to increase from 20.4% in 2010-2014 to 25.8%, representing 51.4% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 54% in hydropower use during 2010-2019 is a key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by just 3% between 2010 and 2019, with nuclear usage up 314% from a low base. More details of the long-term BMI power forecasts can be found at the end of this report.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Pakistan Power Business Environment SWOT
Pakistan Political SWOT
Pakistan Economic SWOT
Industry Overview
Global
Table: Global Summary, 2007-2014
Asia Pacific Region
Table: Asia Pacific Power Generation, 2007-2014 (TWh)
Table: Asia Pacific Thermal Power Generation, 2007-2014 (TWh)
Table: Asia Pacific Primary Energy Demand, 2007-2014 (mn toe)
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption, 2007-2014 (bcm)
Table: Asia Pacific Coal Consumption, 2007-2014 (mn toe)
Table: Asia Pacific Nuclear Energy Consumption, 2007-2014 (TWh)
Pakistan Market Overview
Primary Energy Demand
Power Generation
Power Consumption
Regulation and Competition
Pricing
Power Transmission
Business Environment
Asia Pacific Power Business Environment Ratings
Table: Asia Regional Power Business Environment Ratings
Pakistan’s Power Rating
Rewards
Risks
Legal Framework
Infrastructure
Labour Force
Foreign Investment Policy
Tax Regime
Security Risk
Industry Forecast Scenario
Pakistan Power Outlook
Generation
Gas-Fired
Oil-Fired
Coal-Fired
Nuclear Energy
Hydroelectric
Renewable Energy
Power Costs
Transmission
Table: Pakistan’s Power Sector, 2007-2014
Table: Pakistan’s Thermal Power Sector, 2007-2014
Table: Pakistan’s Non-Thermal Power Sector, 2007-2014
Table: Pakistan Power Costs, 2007-2014
Assumptions and Methodology
Key Risks to BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Long-Term Power Outlook
Macroeconomic Outlook
Pakistan – Economic Activity, 2007-2014
Power Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts
Global Snapshot
Table: Global Summary, 2012-2019
Regional Outlook
Table: Asia Pacific Electricity Generation, 2012-2019 (TWh)
Table: Asia Pacific Primary Energy Demand, 2012-2019 (mn toe)
Table: Asia Pacific Thermal Power Generation, 2012-2019 (TWh)
Table: Asia Pacific Hydroelectric Generation, 2012-2019 (TWh)
Table: Asia Pacific Nuclear Generation, 2012-2019 (TWh)
Pakistan Country Overview
Methodology and Risks to Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
Karachi Electricity Supply Corporation (WAPDA)
Karachi Electric Supply Corporation (KESC)
Country Snapshot: Pakistan Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2000-2012
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Power Industry
Cross Checks
Sources
- Karachi Electricity Supply Corporation (WAPDA)
- Karachi Electric Supply Corporation (KESC)
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