Croatia Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, October 2010, Pages: 81
The Croatia Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Croatia's oil and gas industry.
The latest Croatia Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 1.70% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2014, while contributing just 0.14% to regional supply. CEE regional oil use of 5.42mn b/d in 2001 is expected to rise to an estimated 6.02mn b/d in 2010. It should increase to around 6.68mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was 8.89mn b/d in 2001, and averaged an estimated 13.67mn b/d in 2010. It is set to rise to 14.44mn b/d by 2014. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average 3.47mn b/d. This total will rise to an estimated 7.65mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 7.76mn b/d by 2014. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have the greatest production growth potential, although Russia will remain the key exporter.
In terms of natural gas, the region consumed an estimated 638.6bcm in 2010, with demand of 728.8bcm targeted for 2014, representing 14.1% growth. Production of an estimated 788.4bcm in 2010 should reach 936.4bcm in 2014, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 149.8bcm in 2010 to 207.5bcm by the end of the period. Croatia’s share of gas consumption in 2010 is expected to be around 0.47%, while its share of production is put at 0.25%. By 2014, its share of demand is forecast to be 0.59%, with the country accounting for 0.32% of supply.
For 2010 as a whole, we continue to assume an average OPEC basket price of US$83.00/bbl (+36.4% year-on-year (y-o-y)). Risk is now clearly on the downside, thanks to the slow progress made during June. However, a full-year outturn in excess of US$80 remains a strong possibility and we see no need to review our assumptions at this point. The 2010 US WTI price is now put at US$87.63/bbl. BMI is assuming an OPEC basket price of US$85.00/bbl in 2011, with WTI averaging US$89.74. Our central assumption for 2012 and beyond is an OPEC price averaging US$90.00/bbl, delivering WTI at just over US$95.00.
For 2010, the BMI assumption for premium unleaded gasoline is an average global price of US$95.45/bbl. The overall y-o-y rise in 2010 gasoline prices is put at 36%. Gasoil in 2010 is expected to average US$93.23/bbl. The full-year outturn represents a 35% increase from the 2009 level. For 2010, the annual jet price level is forecast to be US$95.90/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$83.53/bbl, up 41% from the previous year’s level. BMI calculates Croatian real GDP to have risen by 0.5% in 2010. We are assuming average annual growth of 2.7% from 2010-2014. Consumption of oil is set to grow more slowly than the underlying economy, increasing by less than 1.5% per annum over the forecast period and reaching 114,000b/d by 2014. Imports are therefore set to rise from an estimated 82,000b/d in 2010 to no more than 94,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. Former state oil group INA is attempting to raise local supply in partnership with major shareholder MOL, but we expect to see a steady decline in oil and liquids production, from the estimated 2010 level of 24,000b/d to no more than 20,000b/d by 2014. We expect gas output of an estimated 2.0bcm in 2010 to have reached 3.0bcm by 2014. Consumption is forecast to rise from an estimated 3.0bcm in 2010 to 4.3bcm by 2014, requiring imports of 1.3bcm.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Croatian oil consumption of 15.5%, with crude import volumes rising steadily from an estimated 82,000b/d to 105,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Gas production is expected to fall from an estimated 2.0bcm in 2010 to a peak of 3.0bcm before easing to 2.5bcm by 2019. Import dependency therefore increases to 2.8bcm during the period. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
Croatia now shares 13th place with Slovakia in BMI’s composite Business Environment Ratings (BERs) table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It now shares eighth place with Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan in BMI’s updated upstream Business Environment Ratings. The minimal oil and gas reserves and poor production outlook work against the country, but are offset somewhat by privatisation progress and reasonable country risk factors. There is limited long-term scope for Croatia to pull away from its low-scoring rivals, given their greater hydrocarbons potential. Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are much more likely to leave Croatia behind.
Croatia is placed well down the league table in BMI’s downstream Business Environment Ratings, with few particularly high scores and no reason to expect near-term progress up the rankings. Oil and gas demand are among the region’s lowest, as is the oil demand growth outlook. Population, nominal GDP and growth in GDP per capita are also low-scoring areas for the country. Croatia shares 14th and last place with Bulgaria in the downstream ratings.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Croatia Political SWOT
Croatia Economic SWOT
Croatia Business Environment SWOT
Croatia Energy Market Overview
Global Oil Market Review
Drifting With The Tide
Quarterly Trends
Deepwater Turbulence
Global Oil Market Outlook
Waiting For The Wind To Change
Oil Price Forecasts
Oil Supply, Demand And Price Outlook
Short-Term Demand Outlook
Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Short-Term Supply Outlook
Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d)
Longer-Term Supply And Demand
Oil Price Assumptions
Table: Crude Price Assumptions 2010
Table: Oil Price Forecasts
Regional Energy Market Overview
Oil Supply And Demand
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Production (000b/d)
Oil: Downstream
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)
Gas Supply And Demand
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Consumption (bcm)
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Production (bcm)
Liquefied Natural Gas
Table: Central/Eastern Europe LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm)
Business Environment Ratings
Central/Eastern Europe Region
Composite Scores
Table: Regional Composite Business Environment Rating
Upstream Scores
Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating
Croatia Upstream Rating – Overview
Croatia Upstream Rating – Rewards
Croatia Upstream Rating – Risks
Downstream Scores
Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating
Croatia Downstream Rating – Overview
Croatia Downstream Rating – Rewards
Croatia Downstream Rating – Risks
Business Environment
Legal Framework
Infrastructure
Labour Force
Foreign Investment Policy
Tax Regime
Security Risk
Industry Forecast Scenario
Oil And Gas Reserves
Oil Supply And Demand
Gas Supply And Demand
LNG
Refining And Oil Products Trade
Revenues/Import Costs
Table: Croatia Oil And Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts
Other Energy
Table: Croatia Other Energy – Historical Data And Forecasts
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Long-Term Oil And Gas Outlook
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
Oil Pipelines
LNG Terminals
Gas Storage Facilities
Gas Pipelines
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Croatia – Economic Activity
Competitive Landscape
Executive Summary
Table: Key Players In Croatian Energy Sector
Overview/State Role
Licensing and Regulation
Government Policy
International Energy Relations
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Monitor
Industrija Nafte (INA)
Jadranski Naftovod (Janaf)
Eni
MOL – Summary
Plinacro – Summary
OMV – Summary
Others – Summary
Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts
Regional Oil Demand
Table: CEE Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Regional Oil Supply
Table: CEE Oil Production (000b/d)
Regional Refining Capacity
Table: CEE Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)
Regional Gas Demand
Table: CEE Gas Consumption (bcm)
Regional Gas Supply
Table: CEE Gas Production (bcm)
Croatia Country Overview
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts
Glossary Of Terms
Oil And Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology
Introduction
Ratings Overview
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure
Indicators
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology
BMI Methodology
- Industrija Nafte (INA)
- Jadranski Naftovod (Janaf)
- Eni
- MOL
- Plinacro
- OMV
- Others
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