United States Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, May 2013, Pages: 134
The United States Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the United States' oil and gas industry.
The latest US Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 89.12% of North American regional oil demand by 2014, while contributing 67.45% to supply. In North America, overall oil consumption will reach a forecast 21.15mn b/d in 2010. It is set to rise to around 21.43mn barrels per day (b/d) by 2014. North American regional oil production will average an estimated 10.470mn b/d in 2010 and is set to rise to 10.60mn b/d by 2014. Canada will have made an estimated 31.06% contribution to 2010 regional oil supply, with its market share expected to be 32.55% by 2014. Net imports for the region should be 10.83mn b/d in 2014 – up from an estimated 10.68mn b/d in 2010.
In terms of natural gas, North America will consume an estimated 751bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2010, with demand of 799bcm targeted for 2014, representing 6.4% growth. Estimated production of 698bcm in 2010 should ease to 690bcm in 2014, which implies net imports rising to some 109bcm by the end of the period. The US share of gas consumption in 2010 will be an estimated 87.2%, while it contributed 79.1% to regional production. By 2014, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 87%, with 79.7% of regional supply.
For 2010 as a whole, we continue to assume an average OPEC basket price of US$83.00/bbl, +36.4% year-on-year (y-o-y). Risk is now clearly on the downside, thanks to the slow progress made during June- August. However, a full-year outturn in excess of US$80 remains a strong possibility and we see no need to review our assumptions at this point. BMI is assuming an OPEC basket price of US$85.00/bbl in 2011, with WTI averaging US$89.74. Our central assumption for 2012 and beyond is an OPEC price averaging US$90.00/bbl, delivering WTI at just over US$95.00.
For 2010, the BMI assumption for premium unleaded gasoline is an average global price of US$95.45/bbl. The overall y-o-y rise in 2010 gasoline prices is put at 36%. Gasoil in 2010 is expected to average US$93.23/bbl. The full-year outturn represents a 35% increase from the 2009 level. For 2010, the annual jet price level is forecast to be US$95.90/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$83.53/bbl, up 41% from the previous year’s level. US real GDP is assumed by BMI to rise by 2.8% in 2010. We are assuming 2.3% average annual growth in 2010-2014. Average US oil and liquids production is estimated at 7.22mn b/d in 2010. By 2014, we are forecasting output of 7.15mn b/d. Our estimate for 2010US oil demand is 18.87mn b/d, rebounding only slowly from the 2008/09 downturn. We now see US oil use hitting 19.10mn b/d by 2014, requiring crude imports of 11.95mn b/d.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting a 5.06% fall in US oil production, with output peaking at 7.22mn b/d in 2010 before declining to 6.85mn b/d in 2019. Given that oil consumption is forecast to ease by 0.30%, imports rise from an estimated 11.66mn b/d in 2010 to 11.96mn b/d during the forecast period. Gas production should ease from the estimated 2010 level of 552bcm to a low of 540bcm in 2013, then rally to 570bcm by 2019. Demand is forecast to rise from an estimated 655bcm to 737bcm, requiring net imports to rise to a 2017 peak of 175bcm, in the form of pipeline volumes and liquefied natural gas (LNG). Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
According to BMI’s country risk team, the US long-term political risk score is 81.2, compared with the Developed Markets average of 86.7 and the global average of 63.0. Our long-term economic rating for the country is 66.8, in line with the Developed Markets average of 66.8 and above the global average of 53.2. The US is a deregulated, highly competitive and relatively mature energy market. There are numerous international and domestic companies operating at all levels, from exploration, through pipelines, refining and retailing. The market is dominated by US-based organisations, with Britain’s BP the biggest foreign investor, followed by Royal Dutch Shell.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
US Political SWOT
US Economic SWOT
US Energy Market Overview
Global Oil Market Review
Drifting With The Tide
Quarterly Trends
Deepwater Turbulence
Global Oil Market Outlook
Waiting For The Wind To Change
Oil Price Forecasts
Oil Supply, Demand And Price Outlook
Short-Term Demand Outlook
Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Short-Term Supply Outlook
Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d)
Longer-Term Supply And Demand
Oil Price Assumptions
Table: Crude Price Assumptions 2010
Table: Oil Price Forecasts
Regional Energy Market Overview
Oil Supply And Demand
Table: Developed Markets Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Table: Developed Markets Oil Production (000b/d)
Oil: Downstream
Table: Developed Markets Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)
Gas Supply And Demand
Table: Developed Markets Gas Consumption (bcm)
Table: Developed Markets Gas Production (bcm)
Liquefied Natural Gas
Table: Developed Markets LNG Imports/(Exports) (bcm)
Industry Forecast Scenario
Oil And Gas Reserves
Oil Supply And Demand
Gas Supply And Demand
LNG
Refining And Oil Products Trade
Revenues/Import Costs
Table: US Oil And Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts
Other Energy
Table: US Other Energy – Historical Data And Forecasts
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Long-term Oil And Gas Outlook
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
Table: Refineries In The US
Service Stations
Oil Storage Facilities
Oil Terminals/Ports
Oil Pipelines
LNG Terminals
Table: LNG Terminals In The US
Gas Storage Facilities
Gas Pipelines
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: United States – Economic Activity
Competitive Landscape
Executive Summary
Table: Key Players – US Oil And Gas Sector
Overview/State Role
Licensing And Regulation
Government Policy
Licensing Rounds
International Energy Relations
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Monitor
ExxonMobil
Chevron
BP America
ConocoPhillips
Anadarko Petroleum
Royal Dutch Shell
Marathon Oil – Summary
Total – Summary
Hess – Summary
Statoil – Summary
Chesapeake Energy – Summary
Apache – Summary
Enbridge – Summary
Devon Energy – Summary
Maersk Oil – Summary
Valero Energy – Summary
BHP Billiton – Summary
Tesoro – Summary
El Paso – Summary
Gazprom – Summary
Talisman Energy – Summary
Western Refining – Summary
Denbury Resources – Summary
Range Resources – Summary
McMoRan – Summary
Lewis Energy – Summary
Petrohawk – Summary
Repsol YPF – Summary
Holly – Summary
Reliance Industries/Atlas Energy – Summary
Others – Summary
Service Companies
Table: Service Sector M&A Deals
Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts
Regional Oil Demand
Table: North America Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Regional Oil Supply
Table: North America Oil Production (000b/d)
Regional Refining Capacity
Table: North America Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)
Regional Gas Demand
Table: North America Gas Consumption (bcm)
Regional Gas Supply
Table: North America Gas Production (bcm)
US Country Overview
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts
Glossary Of Terms
Oil And Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology
Introduction
Ratings Overview
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure
Indicators
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology
Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology
BMI Methodology
- ExxonMobil
- Chevron
- BP America
- ConocoPhillips
- Anadarko Petroleum
- Royal Dutch Shell
- Marathon Oil
- Total
- Hess
- Statoil
- Chesapeake Energy
- Apache
- Enbridge
- Devon Energy
- Maersk Oil
- Valero Energy
- BHP Billiton
- Tesoro
- El Paso
- Gazprom
- Talisman Energy
- Western Refining
- Denbury Resources
- Range Resources
- McMoRan
- Lewis Energy
- Petrohawk
- Repsol YPF
- Holly
- Reliance Industries/Atlas Energy
- Others
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