|
|
 |
|
Viewing report
|
|
|
|
Mexico Power Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Oct 2010, Pages: 46
Business Monitor International's Mexico Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Mexico's power industry.
The newly published Mexico Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 21.95% of Latin America regional power generation by 2014, with a developing power surplus available for export to the US. BMI’s Latin America power generation assumption for 2010 is 1,198 terawatt hours (TWh), an increase of 4.17% over the previous year. We are forecasting a rise in regional generation to 1,359TWh by 2014, representing an increase of 13.5% between 2010 and 2014.
Latin American thermal power generation in 2010 is assumed by BMI to have been 445TWh, accounting for 37.1% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2014 is 480TWh, implying 8.0% growth between 2010 and 2014, trimming the market share of thermal generation to 35.3% thanks to environmental concerns that are promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear power. Mexico’s 2010 thermal generation is estimated at 215TWh, representing 48.30% of the regional total. By 2014, it is expected to account for 47.19% of regional thermal generation.
For Mexico, oil is the dominant fuel, accounting for an estimated 50.7% of 2010 primary energy demand (PED), followed by gas at 37.1%, coal at 4.4%, hydro-electric energy at 3.9% and nuclear energy with a 1.8% share of PED. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 746mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2014, representing 14.0% growth between 2010 and 2014. Mexico’s estimated market share in 2010 is 26.01%, easing to a forecast 25.36% by 2014. The country’s 9.7TWh of estimated nuclear demand in 2010 is forecast to reach 11.0TWh by 2014, with its share of the Latin American nuclear market set to rise from 31.09% to 33.33%.
Mexico is ranked sixth, ahead only of Venezuela, in BMI’s updated Power Business Environment Ratings, in spite of its considerable market size and reasonable growth prospects. The lack of privatisation progress, a poorly-developed competitive landscape and a demanding regulatory environment conspire with country risk factors to depress the score and put Mexico near the foot of the table. While Peru is likely to remain out of reach, Mexico should be able to keep Venezuela at bay.
BMI is now forecasting average annual Mexican real GDP growth of 3.00% between 2010 and 2014, with an increase of 4.40% assumed for 2010. The population is expected to expand from 108.5mn to 112.2mn over the period, with GDP per capita forecast to increase by 48%. Electricity consumption per capita is now expected to increase during the period by around 8%. The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 199TWh in 2010, to 222TWh by the end of the forecast period, providing a rising net export capability, assuming 3.0% average annual growth in electricity generation between 2010 and 2014.
Between 2010 and 2019, we forecast an increase in Mexican electricity generation of 24.5%, below the Latin American average. This equates to 11.8% in 2014-2019, up from 11.3% in 2010-2014. PED growth is set to rise from the 2010-2014 level of 11.2% to 17.0% in 2014-2019, or 30.1% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 45% in hydro-power use in 2010-2019 is a key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 19% between 2010 and 2019, with nuclear demand rising by 24%. More details of the longer-term BMI power forecasts can be found later in this report.
Product samples
A sample for this product is available. Please Login/Register to download this sample.
Customers who bought this item also bought
Venezuela Power Report Q4 2010
Mexico Power Report Q3 2010
Chile Power Report Q4 2010
Venezuela Power Report Q3 2010
Peru Power Report Q4 2010
Peru Power Report Q3 2010
Colombia Power Report Q4 2010
Argentina Power Report Q3 2010
Colombia Power Report Q3 2010
Brazil Power Report Q4 2010
|
|
|
|
