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Venezuela Power Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Oct 2010, Pages: 46
Business Monitor International's Venezuela Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Venezuela's power industry.
In this report, BMI forecasts that Venezuela will account for 10.13% of Latin America regional power generation by 2014. In order to avoid continuing power rationing, the country needs to slow the rate of growth in electricity consumption and expand generating capacity. Imports from neighbouring countries may be the only solution to near-term power shortages. BMI’s Latin America power generation assumption for 2010 is 1,198 terawatt hours (TWh), an increase of 4.17% over the previous year. We are forecasting a rise in regional generation to 1,359TWh by 2014, representing an increase of 13.5% between 2010 and 2014. Latin American thermal power generation in 2010 is assumed by BMI to have been 445TWh, accounting for 37.1% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2014 is 480TWh, implying 8.0% growth between 2010 and 2014, trimming the market share of thermal generation to 35.3%, thanks to environmental concerns that are promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear power. Venezuela’s thermal generation in 2010 is put at an estimated 36.0TWh, or 8.09% of the regional total. By 2014, the country is expected to account for 7.59% of thermal generation.
Oil has historically been the dominant fuel in Venezuela, accounting for an estimated 37% of 2010 primary energy demand (PED), now matched by gas at 37%, and followed by hydro-electric energy with a 26% share of PED. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 746mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2014, representing 14.0% growth between 2010 and 2014. Venezuela’s estimated 2010 market share of 11.47% is set to ease to 11.07% by 2014. There are no immediate plans to build nuclear reactors in Venezuela. However, in November 2008, the country’s president, Hugo Chávez, announced that Russia plans to aid Venezuela in the construction of its first nuclear power plant.
Venezuela is ranked last, behind even Mexico, in BMI’s updated power sector Business Environment Ratings, in spite of its considerable generating capacity and low level of energy import dependency. The underdeveloped competitive landscape, regulatory issues and the threat of asset renationalisation conspire with country risk factors to deliver a particularly low score that may be insufficient even over the longer term to allow Venezuela to challenge Mexico.
BMI now forecasts average annual growth of 1.56% in Venezuelan real GDP between 2010 and 2014, with a fall of 3.80% assumed for 2010. Population is expected to expand from 28.8mn to 30.6mn over the period, with GDP per capita forecast to decrease by 45%. Electricity consumption per capita is expected to increase by just 5% during the period. The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 98TWh in 2010 to 108TWh by 2014, in spite of government efforts to cap demand and a forecast 2.0% annual average growth (2010-2014) in electricity generation.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Venezuelan electricity generation of 23.9%, which is near the bottom of the range for the Latin America region. This equates to 13.4% in the 2014-2019 period, up from 9.3% in 2010-2014. PED growth is set to rise from 0.1% in 2010-2014 to 10.8% in 2014-2019, representing 21.9% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 16% in hydro-power use during 2010-2019 is one key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 17% between 2010 and 2019. More details of the longer-term BMI power forecasts can be found later in this report.
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