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Colombia Power Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Oct 2010, Pages: 47
Business Monitor International's Colombia Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Colombia's power industry.
In this updated report, BMI forecasts that Colombia will account for 5.04% of Latin American regional power generation by 2014, with a theoretical generation surplus that may still require imports on occasion, particularly if drought conditions impact the vital hydro-power segment. BMI’s Latin America power generation assumption for 2010 is 1,198 terawatt hours (TWh), an increase of 4.17% over the previous year. We are forecasting a rise in regional generation to 1,359TWh by 2014, representing an increase of 13.5% during 2010-2014.
Latin American thermal power generation in 2010 is assumed by BMI to have been 445TWh, accounting for 37.1% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2014 is 480TWh, implying 8.0% growth during 2010-2014, trimming the market share of thermal generation to 35.3% thanks to environmental concerns that are promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear power. Colombia’s thermal generation in 2010 is an estimated at 13.7TWh, or 3.07% of the regional total. By 2014, the country is expected to account for 3.36% of thermal generation.
For Colombia, hydro is the dominant energy source, accounting for an estimated 31.2% of 2010 primary energy demand (PED), followed by oil at 29.1%, gas at 26.3% and coal with a 10.7% share of PED. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 746mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2014, representing 14.0% growth during 2010-2014. Colombia’s estimated 2010 market share of 4.70% is set to rise to 4.89% by 2014. The country’s estimated 42.5TWh of hydro demand in 2010 is forecast to reach 46.6TWh by 2014, with its share of the Latin America hydro market falling from an estimated 6.48% to 6.34%. Colombia is now ranked third just behind Chile in BMI’s updated power sector Business Environment Ratings, thanks to its use of renewable (mostly hydro-power) energy and relatively low energy import dependency. Regulatory issues and privatisation progress beat the regional average, but country risk factors offset some of the industry strength. Over the next several quarters, the country is quite capable of closing the one-point gap between it and second-placed Chile.
BMI is now forecasting Colombian average annual real GDP growth of 4.62% between 2010 and 2014, with an increase of 3.90% assumed for 2010. The population is expected to expand from 46.3mn to 48.7mn over the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to increase by 38% and 15% respectively. The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 42TWh in 2010 to 51TWh by the end of the forecast period. This results in a theoretical generation surplus, but occasional power imports will be required if electricity generation grows at our forecast rate (2010-2014) of an average 4.1% per annum.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Colombian electricity generation of 39.1%, which is above average for the Latin America region. This equates to 17.6% in the 2014-2019 period, down from 18.2% in 2010-2014. PED growth is set to ease from 18.8% in 2010-2014 to 15.9% in 2014- 2019, representing 37.6% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 20% in hydro-power use during 2010-2019 is one key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 47% between 2010 and 2019. More details of the longer-term BMI power forecasts can be found at the end of this report.
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