Peru Power Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, October 2010, Pages: 49
Business Monitor International's Peru Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Peru's power industry.
The newly-published Peru Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 3.06% of Latin American regional power generation by 2014, with supply and demand broadly in balance. BMI’s Latin America power generation assumption for 2010 is 1,198 terawatt hours (TWh), an increase of 4.17% over the previous year. We are forecasting a rise in regional generation to 1,359TWh by 2014, representing an increase of 13.5% between 2010 and 2014.
Latin American thermal power generation in 2010 is assumed by BMI to have been 445TWh, accounting for 37.1% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2014 is 480TWh, implying 8.0% growth between 2010 and 2014, trimming the market share of thermal generation to 35.3% thanks to environmental concerns that are promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear power. Peru’s thermal generation in 2010 is estimated at 13.7TWh, or 3.08% of the regional total. By 2014, the country is expected to account for 3.73% of regional thermal generation.
For Peru, oil will have been the dominant fuel in 2010, accounting for an estimated 50.1% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by hydro-electric at 25.8%, gas at 20.4% and coal at 3.1%. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 746mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2014, representing 14.0% growth between 2010 and 2014. Peru’s estimated 2010 market share of 2.68% is set to rise to 2.72% by 2014.
Peru is ranked fifth, comfortably ahead of Mexico, in BMI’s updated power sector Business Environment Ratings, reflecting its power consumption growth prospects, privatisation progress, competitive landscape and regulatory framework. Country risk factors are largely supportive, but the five-point lead held by Argentina means that Peru may struggle over the near term to move any higher up the rankings. BMI is forecasting Peruvian average annual real GDP growth of 4.94% between 2010 and 2014, with an increase of 5.90% assumed for 2010. The population is expected to expand from 29.5mn, to 30.8mn, over the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to increase by 41% and 16% respectively. The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 31.7TWh in 2010 to 38.2TWh by the end of the forecast period. This results in a broadly-balanced power market, assuming average annual growth (2010-2014) in electricity generation of 4.9%.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Peruvian electricity generation of 47.7%, which is above-average for the Latin America region. This equates to 22.5% in the 2014-2019 period, up from 20.6% in 2010-2014. PED growth is set to rise from 15.9% in 2010-2014 to 21.7% in 2014-2019, representing 41.0% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 10% in hydro-power use during 2010- 2019 is one element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 81% between 2010 and 2019 as gas usage increases. More details of the longer-term BMI power forecasts can be found later in this report.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- Peru Power Business Environment SWOT
- Peru Political SWOT
- Peru Economic SWOT
Industry Overview
- Global
- Table: Global Summary, 2007-2014
- Latin America
- Table: Latin America Power Generation, 2007-2014 (TWh)
- Table: Latin America Thermal Power Generation, 2007-2014 (TWh)
- Table: Latin America Primary Energy Demand, 2007-2014 (mn toe)
- Table: Latin America Gas Consumption, 2007-2014 (bcm)
- Table: Latin America Coal Consumption, 2007-2014 (mn toe)
- Table: Latin America Nuclear Energy Consumption, 2007-2014 (TWh)
Market Overview – Peru
- Primary Energy Demand
- Power Generation
- Power Consumption
- Regulation And Competition
- Pricing
- Power Transmission
Business Environment
- Latin America Power Business Environment Ratings
- Table: Latin America Power Business Environment Ratings
- Peru Power Rating – Overview
- Rewards
- Risks
- Legal Framework
- Infrastructure
- Labour Force
- Foreign Investment Policy
- Tax Regime
- Security Risk
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Peru Power Outlook
- Generation
- Gas-Fired
- Oil-Fired
- Coal-Fired
- Nuclear Energy
- Hydro-Electric
- Renewable Energy
- Power Costs
- Transmission
- Table: Peru Power Sector, 2007-2014
- Table: Peru Thermal Power, 2007-2014
- Table: Peru Non-Thermal Power, 2007-2014
- Table: Peru Power Costs, 2007-2014
- Assumptions And Methodology
- Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
- Long-Term Power Outlook
- Macroeconomic Outlook
- Table: Peru - GDP By Expenditure, 2007-2014
- Power Outlook – Long-Term Forecasts
- Global Snapshot
- Table: Global Summary, 2012-2019
- Latin America
- Table: Latin America Electricity Generation, 2012-2019 (TWh)
- Table: Latin America Primary Energy Demand, 2012-2019 (mn toe)
- Table: Latin America Thermal Power Generation, 2012-2019 (TWh)
- Table: Latin America Hydro-Electric Generation, 2012-2019 (TWh)
- Table: Latin America Nuclear Generation, 2012-2019 (TWh)
- Peru Country Overview
- Methodology And Risks To Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
- Electroperu
- Endesa/Edegel
- Duke/Egenor
- GdF/Enersur
- EGE San Gaban
- Perenesa
BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Power Industry
- Cross Checks
- Sources
- Electroperu
- Endesa/Edegel
- Duke/Egenor
- GdF/Enersur
- EGE San Gaban
- Perenesa
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