|
|
 |
|
Viewing report
|
|
|
|
Argentina Power Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Oct 2010, Pages: 50
Business Monitor International's Argentina Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Argentina's power industry.
The newly published Argentina Power Report from BMI forecasts that by 2014 the country will account for 10.44% of Latin American regional power generation, with a broadly balanced market prior to transmission losses etc. BMI’s Latin America power generation assumption for 2010 is 1,198 terawatt hours (TWh), an increase of 4.17% over the previous year. We are forecasting a rise in regional generation to 1,359TWh by 2014, representing an increase of 13.5% during 2010-2014.
Latin American thermal power generation in 2010 is assumed by BMI to have been 445TWh, accounting for 37.1% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2014 is 480TWh, implying 8.0% growth during 2010-2014, trimming the market share of thermal generation to 35.3% thanks to environmental concerns that are promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear power. Argentina’s thermal generation in 2010 is an estimated 76.9TWh, or 17.3% of the regional total. By 2014, the country is expected to account for 17.1% of thermal generation.
For Argentina, in 2010 gas will have been the dominant fuel, accounting for an estimated 52.1% of PED, followed by oil at 29.4%, hydro at 12.1%, nuclear at 3.4% and coal at 1.4%. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 746mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2014, representing 14.0% growth during 2010-2014. Argentina’s estimated 2010 market share of 11.77% is set to fall to 11.28% by the end of the forecast period. Argentina’s estimated 8.0TWh of nuclear demand in 2010 is forecast to remain around this level in 2014, with its share of the regional nuclear market set to fall from an estimated 25.64% to 24.24% over the period.
Argentina is ranked fourth in BMI’s updated power sector Business Environment Ratings, scoring five fewer points than third-placed Colombia in spite of its market size and low energy import dependency. Peru is five points behind and poses no immediate threat. The Argentinean power sector is competitive, with more progress towards privatisation than seen in most other countries. The regulatory environment has deteriorated in the last few years, thanks to government intervention in energy pricing, but remains more attractive than in other parts of the region.
BMI is now forecasting Argentinean average annual real GDP growth of 2.60% between 2010 and 2014, with an increase of 4.30% assumed in 2010. The population is expected to expand from 40.7mn to 42.1mn over the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to increase by 64% and 6% respectively during the forecast period. The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 124TWh in 2010 to 135TWh by the end of the forecast period, providing a broadly balanced market, assuming 2.8% average annual growth in electricity generation during 2010- 2014.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Argentinean electricity generation of 21.3%, which is one of the lowest for the Latin America region. This equates to 11.2% in the 2014-2019 period, up from 9.1% in 2010-2014. PED growth is set to ease from 9.3% in 2010-2014 to 8.9% in 2014-2019, representing 19.0% for the entire forecast period. An expected increase of 17% in hydro-power use during 2010-2019 is one key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 16% between 2010 and 2019, with nuclear consumption set to increase by 38%. More details of the longerterm BMI power forecasts can be found at the end of this report.
Product samples
A sample for this product is available. Please Login/Register to download this sample.
Customers who bought this item also bought
Argentina Power Report Q3 2010
Colombia Power Report Q3 2010
Chile Power Report Q4 2010
Venezuela Power Report Q4 2010
Peru Power Report Q4 2010
Peru Power Report Q3 2010
Taiwan Power Report 2010
Colombia Power Report Q4 2010
Brazil Power Report Q4 2010
Brazil Power Report Q3 2010
|
|
|
|
