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Brazil Power Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Oct 2010, Pages: 50
Business Monitor International's Brazil Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Brazil's power industry.
The newly published Brazil Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will by 2014 account for 41.57% of Latin America regional power generation. BMI’s Latin America power generation assumption for 2010 is 1,198 terawatt hours (TWh), an increase of 4.17% over the previous year. We are forecasting a rise in regional generation to 1,359TWh by 2014, representing an increase of 13.5% during 2010-2014. Latin American thermal power generation in 2010 is assumed by BMI to have been 445TWh, accounting for 37.1% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2014 is 480TWh, implying 8.0% growth during 2010-2014, trimming the market share of thermal generation to 35.3% thanks to environmental concerns that are promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear power. Brazil’s thermal generation in 2010 is estimated at 49TWh, or 11.01% of the regional total. By 2014, it is
expected to account for 12.06% of regional thermal generation.
In 2010, oil was Brazil’s dominant fuel, accounting for an estimated 44.6% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by hydro at 37.4%, gas at 8.2%, coal at 5.0% and nuclear at 1.5%. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 746mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2014, representing 14.0% growth during 2010-2014. Brazil’s estimated 2010 market share of 36.83% is set to reach 37.77% by 2014. The country’s estimated 13.5TWh of nuclear demand in 2010 is forecast to reach 14.0TWh by 2014, with its share of the regional nuclear market expected to ease from 43.27% to 42.42%.
Brazil is still ranked first, above nearest rival Chile, in BMI’s updated power sector Business Environment Ratings, thanks to its vast market size and excellent growth prospects. It scores highest in the region for installed generating capacity, electricity generation, PED and its use of renewables (largely hydro-power). Certain country risk factors offset some of the industry strength, but the country seems destined to remain at the head of the table for the foreseeable future.
BMI now forecasts average annual real GDP growth of 4.24% between 2010 and 2014, with the 2010 assumption being an increase of 6.00%. The population is expected to expand from 195mn to 201mn over the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to increase significantly (by 46% and 13% respectively). Brazil’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 450TWh in 2010 to 521TWh by the end of 2014, providing theoretical export potential that is cancelled out largely by transmission losses. BMI assumes 3.9% average annual growth in electricity generation between 2010 and 2014.
Between 2010 and 2019, we forecast an increase in Brazilian electricity generation of 44.6%, which is above average for the Latin America region. This equates to 25.4% in the 2014-2019 period, up from 15.3% in 2010-2014. PED growth is set to rise from 17.0% in 2010-2014 to 20.7%, representing 41.2% for the entire forecast period. An anticipated increase of 39% in hydro-power use during 2010-2019 is one key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 35% between 2010 and 2019, with nuclear consumption up by 63%. More details of the longer-term BMI power forecasts can be found later in this report.
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