Egypt Power Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, October 2010, Pages: 55
Business Monitor International's Egypt Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Egypt's power industry
The new Egypt Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 11.76% of the Middle East and Africa (MEA)’s regional power generation by 2014, struggling to cope with demand unless capacity is expanded significantly. BMI’s MEA power generation estimate for 2010 is 1,221 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 4.0% over the previous year (where markets were depressed by the economic slowdown). We are forecasting an increase in regional generation to 1,463TWh by 2014, representing a rise of 19.8% between 2010 and the end of the period.
MEA thermal power generation in 2010 is estimated by BMI at 1,138TWh, accounting for 93.2% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2014 is 1,333TWh, implying 17.2% growth in 2010-2014 that reduces slightly the market share of thermal generation to 91.1% – thanks in part to environmental concerns that should be promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Egypt’s thermal generation in 2010 is an estimated 120TWh, or 10.59% of the regional total. By 2014, the country is expected to account for 10.48% of regional thermal generation.
Gas will have been the dominant fuel in Egypt in 2010, accounting for an estimated 50.2% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by oil at 42.5% and hydro with a 4.3% share. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 1,074mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2014, representing 16.3% growth over the period since 2010. Egypt’s estimated 2010 market share of 8.75% is set to rise to 9.11% by 2014. Egypt’s estimated 15.5TWh of hydro generation in 2010 is forecast to reach 22.1TWh by 2014, with its share of the MEA hydro market rising from an estimated 39.73% to 40.67% over the period.
Egypt is now ranked third behind the UAE in BMI’s updated Power Business Environment Ratings, reflecting its market size and above-average proportion of renewables (hydro-power) use. While the regulatory environment is not particularly attractive, the power sector is modestly competitive, with some progress towards privatisation. Egypt has, as expected, been able to pull away from Saudi Arabia, but is unlikely to be able to catch UAE above it.
BMI now forecasts Egyptian real GDP growth averaging 5.12% a year between 2010 and 2014, with a 2010 growth assumption of 4.90%. Population is expected to expand from 84.5mn to 90.3mn, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita to increase by 64% and 15% respectively. Power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 123TWh in 2010 to 151TWh by 2014, putting constant pressure on the electricity supply industry even assuming 5.2% average annual growth in power generation.
Between 2010 and 2019 we forecast an increase in Egyptian electricity generation of 53.9%, above the middle of the range for MEA. This equates to 25.2% during 2014-2019, up from 22.9% in 2010-2014. PED growth is set to be 24.0% in 2014-2019, up from the 21.0% expected for 2010-2014, representing 50.0% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 80% in hydro-power use in 2010-2019 is an important element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 43% between 2010 and 2019. More details of the long-term BMI power forecasts can be found later in this report.
SWOT Analysis
- Egypt Power Business Environment SWOT
- Egypt Political SWOT
- Egypt Economic SWOT
Industry Overview
- Global
- Table: Global Summary, 2007-2014
- Middle East And Africa Region
- Table: Middle East And Africa Power Generation, 2007-2014 (TWh)
- Table: Middle East And Africa Thermal Power Generation, 2007-2014 (TWh)
- Table: Middle East And Africa Primary Energy Demand, 2007-2014 (mn toe)
- Table: Middle East And Africa Gas Consumption, 2007-2014 (bcm)
- Table: Middle East And Africa Coal Consumption, 2007-2014 (mn toe)
- Table: Middle East And Africa Nuclear Energy Consumption, 2007-2014 (TWh)
Market Overview
- Primary Energy Demand
- Power Generation
- Power Consumption
- Regulation And Competition
- Pricing
- Power Transmission
Business Environment
- Middle East And Africa Power Business Environment Ratings
- Table: Regional Power Business Environment Rating
- Egypt’s Power Rating
- Rewards
- Risks
- Legal Framework
- Infrastructure
- Labour Force
- Foreign Investment Policy
- Tax Regime
- Security Risk
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Egypt’s Power Outlook
- Generation
- Gas-Fired
- Oil-Fired
- Coal-Fired
- Nuclear Energy
- Hydro-Electric
- Renewable Energy
- Power Costs
- Transmission
- Table: Egypt’s Power Sector, 2007-2014
- Table: Egypt’s Thermal Power Sector, 2007-2014 (US$mn, unless otherwise stated)
- Table: Egypt’s Non-Thermal Power, 2007-2014
- Table: Egypt’s Power Costs, 2007-2014 (US$mn, unless otherwise stated)
- Assumptions And Methodology
- Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
- Long-Term Power Outlook
- Macroeconomic Outlook
- Table: Egypt – Economic Activity, 2007-2014
- Power Outlook – Long-Term Forecasts
- Global Snapshot
- Table: Global Summary, 2012-2019
- Regional Outlook
- Table: Middle East And Africa Electricity Generation, 2012-2019 (TWh)
- Table: Middle East And Africa Primary Energy Demand, 2012-2019 (mn toe)
- Table: Middle East And Africa Thermal Power Generation, 2012-2019 (TWh)
- Table: Middle East And Africa Hydro-Electric Generation, 2012-2019 (TWh)
- Table: Middle East And Africa Nuclear Generation, 2012-2019 (TWh)
- Egypt Overview
- Methodology And Risks To Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Power Industry
- Cross Checks
- Sources
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