Ukraine Metals Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, October 2010, Pages: 53
The Ukraine Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, metals associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Ukraine's metals industry.
The Ukrainian steel industry is making a stronger than expected recovery, but disputes between the government and Russian aluminium producer RusAl have put the future of the country’s only aluminium smelter in jeopardy, according to this latest Ukraine Metals Report from BMI.
In the first seven months of 2010, Ukrainian crude steel output grew 15.3% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 18.76mn tonnes, in line with BMI’s expectations. However, monthly output moderated, falling to 2.41mn tonnes in July, down 9.4% y-o-y and down 2.4% month-on-month (m-o-m). During the January-August period, finished steel product output grew 9.8% y-o-y to 21.36mn tonnes, but production of steel pipes went down by 2.2% y-o-y to 1.05mn tonnes. Ukrainian steelmakers were confident that the downturn was temporary with Vasily Kharahulah, managing director of Ukrainian steelmakers association Metallurgprom, indicating that steelmakers were planning to increase monthly crude steel production to 2.75mn tonnes crude steel and 2.56mn tonnes of finished steel in September, rising to 3.06mn tonnes of crude steel and 2.77mn tonnes of finished steel in October.
Based on data trends and planned output both in crude output data and within steel consuming industries, BMI has raised its crude steel output growth forecast from 12.9% to 19.5% to 35.57mn tonnes in 2010 and 18.3% growth in hot-rolled output, up from 13.2%, to 28.60mn tonnes. Of particular importance is the growth in Ukrainian consumption for flat steel, assisted by growth in the commercial vehicle segment and railcars. Ukrainian demand for automotive sheet steel and aluminium is rising as the car industry begins its recovery, but a full recovery in the steel industry would require an increase in demand from the construction industry, which is currently in stagnation.
Structural constraints within the industry, coupled with policy flux and uncertainties regarding future sector consolidation, will militate against the domestic industry to the benefit of imports. The decline in the value of the euro and a fluctuation in steel prices are contributing to increasing uncertainty in the industry and holding back output. In the first eight months of 2010, Ukraine’s imports of rolled steel products increased by 93.2% y-o-y to 892,805 tonnes. In the top three most imported products, hot rolled sheet and coil grew 153.6% to 185,080 tonnes, round billet grew 113.5% to 308,254 tonnes and galvanised steel rose 55.2% to 107,493 tonnes. However, rebar was down 50.6% to 22,188 tonnes, the only segment to show a contraction in imports. Most imports originated from Russia, which also remained the country’s primary export market. In the first seven months of 2010, Ukraine’s exports of steel pipes decreased by 16.9% y-o-y to 651,910 tonnes while its semi-finished steel product exports went up by 1.0% to 7.02mn tonnes. Over the period, exports of flat rolled steel increased by 15.6% y-o-y to about 3.86mn tonnes and its exports of long steel went up by 23% y-o-y to 3.32mn tonnes.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Ukraine Political SWOT
Ukraine Economic SWOT
Ukraine Business Environment SWOT
Global Market Overview
Table: World’s Top 10 Steel Producing Countries
Table: Recent And New Smelter Capacity
Commodities Forecast
Nickel
Table: BMI’s Nickel Forecasts
Table: Nickel, 2005-2011
Aluminium
Table: BMI’s Aluminium Forecasts
Table: Aluminium, 2005-2011
Copper
Table: BMI’s Copper Forecasts
Table: Copper, 2005-2011
Regional Overview
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Ukraine Steel Imports
Table: Ukraine’s Metals Industry (‘000 tonnes unless stated)
Macroeconomic Outlook
Fiscal Cuts, Weaker Demand To Limit Growth
Table: Ukraine – Economic Activity
Competitive Landscape
Aluminium
Steel
Table: Ukraine – Crude steel production by producer (tonnes)
Company Profiles
ArcelorMittal Kryviy Rih
RusAl
Azovstal
Zaporizhstal
Global Assumptions – Q4 2010 Update
Table: Global Assumptions
Table: Global & Regional Real Gdp Growth
Table: Consensus Forecasts
Table: Developed States, Real Gdp Growth Forecast
Table: Emerging Markets Aggregate Growth
Table: Emerging Markets Aggregate Growth
Country Snapshot: Ukraine Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Cross Checks
- ArcelorMittal Kryviy Rih
- RusAl
- Azovstal
- Zaporizhstal
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