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Iraq Telecommunications Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Oct 2010, Pages: 72
Iraq Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Iraq's telecommunications industry.
With the publication of mobile subscriber data for June 2010, by the country’s two largest operators Zain Iraq and Asiacell, BMI has been able to provide a fuller picture of the mobile industry for the Q410 Iraq Telecommunications Report, and which includes adjusted forecasts. However, given that the smaller mobile operators do not release data, our H110 figures like those of previous quarters remain estimates.
The first half of 2010 presented a strong picture with no less than 2.439mn net additions, and significantly higher than the 1.565mn net additions in the same period of the previous year. Much of the stronger growth in 2010 has been attributed to price competition, the introduction of value-added and data services, while BMI believes that the second half of the year will see equally strong growth as operators continue to expand their networks. In June 2010, mobile market leader Zain Iraq announced that is currently expanding its network in the northern Kurdish governorates of Erbil, Dohuk and Suleimaniya. At around the same time, second-ranked Asiacell expanded its network to the governate of Anbar, including the cities of Rawah, Ubaidi, Karbalah, Husaibah and Haditha, as part of its drive to achieve countrywide coverage in 2010.
While greater network expansion will help boost the number of mobile subscribers in the country, we also believe that an expected influx of foreigners in 2010, working in the oil sector will also help to boost mobile subscriber growth. Although Iraq does not yet have a government, in mid-June the Iraqi authorities announced the release of oil income to oil-producing governorates. With oil prices high, and Iraq retaining the world’s third-largest reserves, the oil industry is set to boost economic growth, which is attractive for the mobile sector.
Prepaid mobile subscribers dominate the industry, which has been responsible for the flat ARPUs experienced during 2009 and 2010. Zain Iraq’s ARPUs have remained unchanged at US$11 between March 2009 and June 2010. Asiacell’s ARPU was higher at US$14 in June 2010, and flat since December 2009. That Asiacell’s ARPU should be higher than Zain’s is surprising when we consider that the former only offers prepaid services and has not yet indicated when it will launch postpaid services. The difference could therefore relate to Zain’s larger prepaid base and to its aggressive price competition. Meanwhile, Iraq maintained its ninth place position in BMI’s most recent set of Business Environment Ratings for the Middle East and North Africa. However, Iraq’s own scores have seen no further changes this quarter as it looks to overtake nearest competitor Jordan, which is only one point ahead.
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