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Nigeria Telecommunications Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Oct 2010, Pages: 87
Nigeria Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Nigeria's telecommunications industry.
BMI’s Q4 2010 update on Nigeria’s telecoms market contains the latest fixed-line and mobile subscriber figures for the sector at the end of June 2010. Based on the latest operational data, we updated the five year growth forecasts for the country’s fixed-line and mobile subscriber markets.
The latest figures from the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) suggest Nigeria’s mobile customer base grew 7.5% in the first six months of 2010 to reach 78.65mn at the end of June. This resulted in a mobile penetration rate of 51.6%, up from 38.8% a year earlier. After expanding 4.5% in the first three months of 2010, mobile customer growth slowed in the second quarter of the year, with the number of Nigerian mobile customers increasing by just 3% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q). Compared with the preceding quarters, mobile customer growth in Q210 was relatively low. One explanation for the slowdown could be the launch of compulsory SIM registration in May 2010. In future, this development is expected to result in much slower rates of growth for the mobile market.
BMI has revised up its growth forecast for Nigeria’s mobile sector. We expect the market to have more than 84mn subscribers at the end of 2010, reflecting full-year growth of about 15%. We continue to believe that rural areas will be one of the next important growth frontiers in the market. If Nigeria’s mobile operators manage to implement strategies which allow them to expand into underserved parts of the country, it is possible the forecast will report faster growth than we anticipate. By the end of 2014, the newly revised forecast envisages more than125.5mn mobile customers; equivalent to a penetration rate of over 75%.
Noteworthy developments in Nigeria’s telecoms market include signs that the privatisation of ailing incumbent fixed-line operator Nitel has moved a step closer. According to a report by Bloomberg in July, the chairman of Nigeria’s Senate Committee on Privatisation indicated the government should approve the sale of Nitel to New Generation Telecommunications, the consortium which emerged as the preferred buyer for the operator in February, after bidding US$2.5bn.
Other notable developments in the sector include the announcement in August that Nigeria’s third-ranked mobile operator Zain would be rebranded as Bharti in October. The move follows the acquisition of the operator by India’s Bharti Airtel in March 2010.
In this quarter we introduce terminology to describe the different categories surveyed in BMI’s Telecoms Business Environment Ratings. BMI undertook this change in order to standardise the Business Environment Ratings across different industry sectors. Nigeria continues to rank second in BMI’s latest set of Business Environment Ratings for Sub-Saharan Africa.
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