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Taiwan Telecommunications Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Oct 2010, Pages: 98
Taiwan Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Taiwan's telecommunications industry.
BMI’s Q410 update on Taiwan’s telecommunications market incorporates regulatory data for the end of 2009 and new operational and financial data from the country’s leading telecoms operators – Chunghwa Telecom, Taiwan Mobile and FarEasTone for the end of Q210.
By the end of June 2010, estimates that Taiwan’s mobile subscriber base stood at 27.760mn, reflecting an increase of 0.7% in Q210. This, in addition to the 1.1% growth in Q110, brings total mobile growth in H110 to 1.8%, considerably lower than the 3.5% growth recorded for the same period in 2009. This suggests that the days of rapid expansion in Taiwan’s mobile sector may be over given the high mobile penetration rates in the country. By the end of December, there were 27.26mn Taiwanese mobile customers, giving the country a penetration rate of 117.7%. BMI’s figures for the total subscriber base are based on data published by the three main mobile operators and the telecoms regulatory authority, the National Communications Commission (NCC). Given that the market performance in H110 is in line with expectations, forecast for the development of the sector over the next five years are unchanged this quarter. Meanwhile, expect 3G to be main growth driver in the market over the forecast period; a view supported by the sharp fall in operator’s reported 2G subscriber figures. New figures released by the leading operators suggest that 3G subscriptions reached around 61.6% of total mobile subscriptions at the end of Q210. By the end of 2010, predict that nearly 70% of Taiwanese mobile customers will have 3G-enabled handsets.
Mobile operators experienced a mixed performance in their ARPU rates in the first half of 2010. While rates fell sharply in Q110, there was a considerable rebound in the second quarter of the year. Still expect ARPU rates to bear downwards despite operators’ effort at attracting higher value customers, however, the rate of decline is expected to much slower than in previous years.
Internet forecasts have largely remained unchanged this quarter following a revision of expectations in previous report. In addition to the lack of new data from the regulator to suggest otherwise, subscriber figures released by market leader Chunghwa Telecom are in line with forecasts. Therefore, still anticipate that, by the end of 2014, Taiwan will have almost 28.7mn broadband subscribers, equivalent to over 122% penetration. The high penetration rate reflects the phenomenon whereby an increasing number of broadband internet customers subscribe to both a fixed and mobile broadband service.
Taiwan continues to sit in seventh place in BMI’s Business Environment Ratings for the Asia Pacific region. Although Taiwan scores below the regional average in the telecoms market category, its other scores are all above average. In the case of industry risk and country risk, Taiwan’s scores are among the highest in the region.
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