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South Africa Shipping Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Oct 2010, Pages: 97
South Africa Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, shipping associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on South Africa's shipping industry.
Despite industrial action and sluggish demand from the dry bulk sector, Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) is on the road to recovery following a throughput decline of 8.17% in 2009. The terminal recorded much better figures for the month of July, in spite of a nine-day strike by the terminal's employees. RBCT posted export figures of 5.93mn tonnes of coal for July 2010, up 9% on last year's July coal export figure of 5.44mn tonnes.
This brings the port's total throughput to 45.9mn tonnes for the year to date (January-July 2010) and places the port on course to reach BMI's forecast throughput for the full year of 2010 of 79.4mn tonnes, a projected y-o-y increase of 2.30%.
We project that it will take RBCT until the end of the forecast period in 2014 to recover to its predownturn throughput level. However, we note that although the dry bulk shipping sector, upon which the port is so reliant, is sluggish, the port is diversifying its customer base.
RBCT is seeing increasing demand from India and China as the Asian countries are constructing new power plants. India registered a 27% year-on-year increase in coal imports to 4.55mn tonnes in Q110, compared with 3.59mn tonnes in the corresponding period in 2009. China imported nearly 1.9mn tonnes, compared with 1.38mn in Q109. The two Asian giants accounted for approximately 42% of RBCT's shipments in Q110, compared with around 25% in Q109.
On the container front the country's largest box port is also staging a recovery. Throughput at the port of Durban fell by 9.35% in 2009 to 2.4mn 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs), below the volume seen in 2007. We expect the port to recover to 2007 levels in 2010, with the port expected to reach the highs of 2008 in 2011. The port of Durban is already on course in its recovery, having handled 1.4mn TEUs in January-July 2010.
A recent dredging and widening project has increased capacity at the port to 2.9mn TEUs per year. The port will need to continue with this upgrade work if it is to avoid the congestion that plagued the port predownturn.
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