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Mexico Tourism Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Oct 2010, Pages: 47
Mexico Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, tourism associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Mexico's tourism industry.
Tourist Arrivals Continue To Improve In H110
Data released by the Secretaría de Turismo (Ministry of Tourism, Sectur) in September 2010 showed that tourist arrivals to Mexico totalled 11.3mn in the first half of the year, representing growth of 5.3% growth year-on-year (y-o-y). This shows that Mexico’s tourism sector is steadily recovering, following an annual decline of 2.7% in Q110, with arrivals having only returned to growth in March. Indeed, arrivals grew by an impressive 19.2% y-o-y in June.
Expect growth to pick up in Q2, given that Q209 had been a particularly bad quarter, with arrivals dropping sharply as a result of swine flu. As such, do not expect the June figure to be indicative of growth rates for the rest of the year, especially given that the June to November hurricane season traditionally weighs on arrivals around the Gulf of Mexico areas and in particular the Yucatán peninsula. Looking ahead, expect the improving trend to continue, albeit slowly, with much depending on the speed of recovery in the US. Expect tourist arrivals to show full-year growth in 2010, with the forecast remaining at 20.1mn arrivals, which would represent the highest number of arrivals since 2008.
Focus On Baja California Sur
Mexico’s Baja California Sur is one of the country’s northernmost states and occupies the lower half of the California peninsula. Baja California Sur is a popular domestic tourist destination, as well as a very popular location for weekend or short-stay holidays for nearby US citizens. Given its status as a major US holiday destination, Baja California Sur boasts a number of high-end and luxury resorts. Among the most famous of these are Cabo San Lucas and San Jose del Cabo. The resorts are particularly popular during the winter high season of November to February, and also a frequent destination for short breaks throughout the year.
Major Airline Mexicana Collapses
After several years of slowing tourist arrivals and growing debt concerns, the country’s biggest airline Mexicana collapsed in August 2010. On 2 August, the airline filed for bankruptcy protection in the Mexico and the US and on 27 August, the airline announced that it was grounding all its flights, including those of its low-cost subsidiaries MexicanaClick and MexicanaLink. Prior to its collapse, Mexicana operated 69 aircraft, while MexicanaClick and MexicanaLink had 35 and 15 aircraft respectively. Mexicana had flown 220 routes to 65 domestic and international destinations. The collapse of Mexico’s biggest airline will cause considerable disruption to the industry, at a time when airlines are only just beginning to recover from the bleak operating environment of 2008-2009. In the medium term, it is likely to encourage consolidation within the industry, with Mexican’s chief rival Aéromexico becoming the dominant airline, competing with various domestic and low-cost airlines.
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