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United Arab Emirates Tourism Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Oct 2010, Pages: 69
United Arab Emirates Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, tourism associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the United Arab Emirates' tourism industry.
Tourism Overview
There appears to be a favourable recovery underway in tourism to the UAE as a whole in 2010, after negative growth in foreign arrivals in 2009. In Dubai, figures for H110 show that the total number of hotel guests was up 9% year-on-year (y-o-y). Recently released data on arrivals to Dubai hotels in 2009, however, show there was only a marginal increase of under 1% y-o-y, to around 7.6mn. The total number of foreign guest arrivals though – excluding UAE tourists (that recorded buoyant growth) – fell 4% y-o-y, to about 6.8mn. This can be largely attributed to a marked 10% y-o-y decline in visitors from Europe, with tourist arrivals from the UK – the key source market – falling a considerable 16% y-o-y. As regards Abu Dhabi, tourist numbers were up 16% y-o-y to just over 1mn in the period January-July 2010. In Sharjah, meanwhile, the number of tourists staying in the emirate’s hotels and apartments in H110 increased nearly 11% y-o-y to over 745,000.
Hospitality
There was an improved performance in the Dubai hospitality sector in H110, with hotel guest nights up a strong 18% y-o-y to nearly 12.5mn nights. Hotel occupancy rates though were unchanged y-o-y in H1 at 71.7% (partly due to an increase in the number of hotel rooms). After relatively strong growth in Abu Dhabi in the first four months of the year, figures for the month of July show tourist nights rose a robust 24% y-o-y, with guests from the UK – the largest international market – Saudi Arabia and France all recording very strong growth. Sharjah’s figures for H110 show that the total number of occupied room nights in hotel establishments increased to 783,396, which represents an increase of 8% y-o-y. The overall occupancy rate was 70%, a solid increase on the 64% achieved in the first six months of 2009.
Forecast Scenario
Based on new data on arrivals to Dubai, we have revised our negative growth estimate for arrivals in 2009 to the UAE to -4.5% y-o-y, to some 9mn visitors. The poor outturn for the sector was due to the impact of severe recession in the US and key European economies. Relatively strong recovery in arrivals growth is anticipated in 2010 (but from a low base in 2009), athough growth is forecast to moderate slightly in 2011. These forecasts are based on economic recovery in major source markets, particularly the eurozone, the UK and the Middle East.
Dubai World
Confidence in the UAE’s ability to recover from 2009’s financial crisis was given a slight boost on September 10, following the announcement that state-owned investment company Dubai World (owner of Nakheel, the troubled property developer) had come to terms with 99% of its creditors over its plans to restructure US$25bn worth of liabilities. Under the terms of the deal, Dubai World is set to offload a wide swathe of its prized assets over a period of eight years, with the sales projected to generate up to a maximum of US$19.4bn.
Airport Passenger Traffic
Confirming the recovery in tourism, there was a rebound in passenger traffic at Abu Dhabi International Airport during H110, with numbers rising by nearly 12% y-o-y. The top five routes (accounting for 20% of total traffic) were London, Bangkok, Doha, Manilla and Bahrain. After annual growth in passenger numbers of 9% in 2009 at Dubai International Airport, growth accelerated in the first seven months of 2010 to 16% y-o-y.
Airlines
In July, Dubai-based Emirates ordered 30 Boeing 777-300ER aircraft, in a deal worth approximately US$9bn. Figures for the flag carrier of Abu Dhabi, Etihad Airways, for H110 show passenger traffic increased by a favourable 11% y-o-y. In Q210, Sharjah-based Air Arabia served 1.1mn passengers, up by 11% y-o-y.
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