Mexico Telecommunications Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, August 2010, Pages +: 75
The Mexico Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Mexico's telecommunications industry.
The latest update on Mexico’s telecommunications market contains revised forecast figures for the country’s fixed-line telephony, broadband subscriber and mobile customer markets. Our new forecast revisions are partly based on new data published by Mexico’s Comisión Federal de Telecomunicaciones (Cofetel). Meanwhile, our forecasts incorporate H110 data which, at the time of writing, had been published by the majority of Mexico’s telecoms operators.
Since our last update, mobile subscriber data has been published for the first six months of 2010 by all of Mexico’s network operators, with the exception of Iusacell. Based on the available data, we calculate that the market grew by 3.9% in the first six months of the year, reflecting the addition of 3.22mn new customers. Growth rates for the first two quarters of 2010 were higher than in the same quarters in 2009. BMI now predicts growth of 8% for 2010 as a whole. Furthermore we now forecast a total market of around 105mn subscribers by the end of 2014, reflecting a penetration rate of over 94%.
Key developments in the mobile sector include the July news that a joint venture between Mexican media conglomerate Grupo Televisa and mobile operator Nextel Mexico, which is owned by NII Holdings, had emerged as the sole bidder for a nationwide concession in the sale of spectrum in the 1700MHz band. The Televisa/NII joint venture bid for 30MHz in each of the country’s nine mobile operating regions. Also in July, it was revealed that Spain’s Telefónica had emerged as the highest bidder in an auction for spectrum in the 1900MHz band. The second and third-highest bids were submitted by mobile operator Iusacell and the Televisa/NII joint venture. All three operators were awarded blocks of 10MHz spectrum. BMI’s new forecast for Mexico’s fixed-line market envisages a pattern of slow decline. By the end of our forecast period, we now predict that penetration will fall to just 16.6%.
Meanwhile, our new broadband subscriber forecast anticipates growth of almost 24% in 2010 as a whole. Our new forecast is based on subscriber data published by the leading broadband service providers, including fixed-line incumbent Telmex. This data suggests that the number of broadband subscribers grew by 12.2% in H1 2010. Key developments of note in the wireline sector include the news that a consortium made up of Grupo Televisa, Mexican cableco Megacable and Spain’s Telefónica had been awarded the licence allowing access to two strands of dark fibre owned by state power company Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE). Under the terms of the licence, all three companies will be able to transport customer traffic over the fibre strands; the licence will also allow them to offer routing services to other operators.
This quarter sees the introduction of new terminology to describe the different categories surveyed within BMI’s Telecoms Business Environment Ratings. Mexico remains in fourth position in BMI’s latest set of Business Environment Ratings for Latin America. Mexico scores above average in all four categories.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Mexico Mobile Market SWOT Analysis
Mexico Wireline Business Environment SWOT
Mexico Political SWOT
Mexico Economic SWOT
Mexico Business Environment SWOT
Business Environment Rankings
Latin America Business Environment Ratings
Mexico
Table: Latin America BER Q410
Industry Forecast Scenario
Mobile
Table: Telecoms Sector – Mobile – Historical Data & Forecasts
ARPU
Table: Telecoms Sector – Mobile ARPU (MXN) – Historical Data & Forecasts
Fixed Line
Table: Telecoms Sector – Fixed Line – Historical Data & Forecasts
Internet
Table: Telecoms Sector – Internet – Historical Data & Forecasts
Market Data Analysis:
Mobile
Market Shares
Table: Mexico Mobile Market, Q210
Net Additions
Table: Mexico Mobile Market, Net Additions, Q409-Q210
Subscriber Mix
ARPU & MOU
3G
Mobile Contract Wins
Table: Mobile Contract Wins
Mobile Content
Regional Overview
Country Outlook
SMS
Mobile Broadband
Mobile Banking
Location Services
Other Content
Value-Added Services Timeline
Table: Value-Added Services Timeline
Mobile Operator Data
Mexico Mobile Market Overview
Table: Telcel
Table: Movistar
Table: Iusacell
Table: Nextel
Fixed Line
Table: Mexico Local Access Market, Q210
Regional Analysis
Table: Telmex Operations In Communities With And Without Competition, 2009 (MXNmn)
Subscriber Types
Long Distance
Table: ILD Minutes By Country 2009 (‘000)
Pay-TV And Triple Play
Internet
Table: Mexico Internet Users By Access Type, 2001-2009 (‘000)
Table: Mexico Internet Subscription Market, 2004-2008 (‘000)
Other Technologies
Table: Mexico: Fibre-Optic Network, 2002-2009 (‘000km)
Table: Mexico’s Wireline Developments
Regulatory Developments
Division Of Regulatory Responsibilities In Mexico
Mexico: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
Background And Regulatory Bodies
Regulatory Issues
Competition
Interconnection
Investment
Industry Developments
Competitive Landscape
Competitor Analysis
Table: Key Players: Mexico Telecoms Sector
Table: Key Players: Mexico Telecoms Operators Financial Indicators, 2005-2009 (US$mn)
Company Monitor
Huawei Carving Out Place In Latin America
Table: Huawei Contract Sales (CNYbn)
Operator Profiles
Telmex
Axtel
Telcel (América Móvil)
Telefónica Móviles México (Movistar)
Iusacell
Nextel
Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview
Mobile
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview
Fixed Line
Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview
Internet/Broadband
Table: Regional Internet Penetration Overview
Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview
Glossary Of Terms
Table: Glossary Of Terms
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Ratings Indicators
Weighting
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
Sources
- Telmex
- Axtel
- Telcel (América Móvil)
- Telefónica Móviles México (Movistar)
- Iusacell
- Nextel
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