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Brazil Insurance Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Aug 2010, Pages: 77
Brazil Insurance Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, insurance associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Brazil's insurance industry.
Writing in July 2010, we have been able to ensure that the report includes actual data for 2009. The industry regulator, the Superintendency of Private Insurance Companies (Superintendência de Seguros Privados, SUSEP), identifies three life lines in its data: VGBL products, retirement savings schemes (of which PGBL products are an important subset) and capitalisation schemes. We have also included health insurance premiums: details are sourced from the Agência Nacional de Saúde Suplementar (ANS), the health insurance regulator. At the time of writing, SUSEP has published data for the first four months of 2010: we have incorporated this information into our forecasts for the year as a whole.
For BMI’s purposes, the non-life segment includes the consolidated insurance figures published by SUSEP except for VGBL products, which are a subset of personal lines that belong to the life segment. We consider that the Brazilian non-life segment also includes the health insurance premiums disclosed by the ANS.
Meanwhile, we consider the life segment to consist of three elements: VGBL premiums, private pension contributions (which are dominated by premiums for PGBL products) and contributions to Capitalizacão savings bonds.
Taking this approach, we consider that total insurance premiums amounted to BRL157.33bn in 2009. This included non-life premiums of BRL108.84bn and life premiums of BRL48.48bn. Our forecasts suggest that the corresponding figures in 2014 will be BRL264.10bn, BRL181.01bn and BRL83.09bn. In terms of the key drivers that underpin our forecasts, we are looking for non-life penetration to rise from 3.53% of GDP in 2009 to 4.00%. These figures are relatively high by the standards of developing countries with Brazil’s per capita GDP: however, as noted above, they are inflated by the inclusion of health insurance premiums. We look for life density to rise from US$125 per capita in 2009 to US$242 in 2014.
Insurance Business Environment Rating (IBER) for Brazil is 67.4 out of 100.
We include a discussion of developments within regional markets, on the basis of results published by major cross-border companies in relation to Q209 or Q309 and the latest information provided by regulators and/or trade associations. The first nine months of 2009 were an excellent period for Spain’s MAPFRE, arguably the leading cross-border insurance group in Latin America. In October 2009 MAPFRE signed a memorandum of understanding with Banco do Brasil to establish a strategic alliance in the personal, property and motor lines in Brazil.
Brazil’s insurance sector is the beneficiary of several major trends. Perhaps the most important is the general improvement in investors’ perceptions of risks associated with the country. The overall tendency towards lower long-term interest rates and stronger currency helps in several ways. Greater economic stability is conducive to the development of non-life insurance, and greater availability of long-term local currency assets is helpful for the development of organised savings.
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