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Pakistan Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Aug 2010, Pages: 97
Business Monitor International's Pakistan Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Pakistan's oil and gas industry.
The latest Pakistan Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 1.51% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2014, while providing 0.77% of its supply. Regional oil use of 21.42mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 is set to reach a forecast 27.15mn b/d in 2010, then to rise to around 30.21mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was around 8.35mn b/d in 2001 and is forecast to average 8.82mn b/d in 2010. It is set to increase only slightly to 8.89mn b/d by 2014. Oil imports are growing rapidly, because demand growth is outstripping the pace of supply expansion. In 2001 the region was importing an average of 13.07mn b/d. This total will rise to a projected 18.32mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 21.32mn b/d by 2014. The principal importers will be China, Japan, India and South Korea. By 2014 the only net exporter will be Malaysia.
In terms of natural gas, in 2010 the region will consume an estimated 496bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 625bcm is targeted for 2014. Production of a forecast 415bcm in 2010 should reach 522bcm in 2014, which implies net imports rising from around 81bcm to 104bcm. This is thanks to many Asian gas producers being major exporters. Pakistan’s share of gas consumption in 2010 is an estimated 7.66%, while its share of production is put at 9.16%. By 2014, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 6.95%, with the country accounting for 8.05% of supply.
We continue to predict a 2010 OPEC basket oil price level of US$83.00/bbl. This equates to Brent at just under US$85.00, WTI at almost US$87.60, Urals averaging US$83.60 and Dubai at US$83.55. The 2011 OPEC assumption is US$85.00/bbl, rising to an average of around US$90.00 in 2012 and beyond. For the whole of 2010, we are currently assuming an average global jet fuel price of US$95.50/bbl, compared with around US$70.66 in 2009. The 2010 average global gasoil price, calculated by BMI, is US$92.67/bbl, against US$68.96 in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is estimated at US$83.09 – compared with US$59.30/bbl in 2009. For global unleaded gasoline, BMI is now forecasting an average of US$95.66/bbl in 2010, up from around US$70.17/bbl in 2009.
Pakistan’s real GDP growth in 2010 is assumed by BMI to be 2.4%, with an average annual increase of 3.0% forecast for 2010-2014. Several state-controlled oil and gas companies are in the throes of privatisation, and already work with international oil companies (IOCs) in the upstream segment. We foresee oil and gas liquids production of no more than 68,000b/d by 2014, with the country able to pump an estimated 80,000b/d in 2010. Consumption beyond 2009 is forecast to increase by up to 3.5% per annum to 2014, implying demand of 455,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. The import requirement would therefore be approximately 387,000b/d by 2014. Gas demand is set to rise from an estimated 38bcm in 2010 to 43.5bcm by 2014, requiring imports of at least 1.5bcm.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting a decrease in Pakistani oil production of 37.50%, with crude volumes falling steadily to 50,000b/d in 2019. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2019 is set to increase by 18.92%, with growth slowing to an assumed 1.5% per annum during the period and the country using 497,000b/d by 2019. Gas production is expected to rise from an estimated 38bcm in 2010 to a possible 47.0bcm by 2019. With demand growth of 37.40%, this will require imports rising to 5.2bcm by the end of the forecast period. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts, which provide regional and country-specific projections, can be found later in this report.
Pakistan is ranked ninth in BMI’s composite Business Environment (BE) league table. It ranks seventh, above the Philippines, in BMI’s updated upstream Business Environment Ratings, reflecting a reasonable resource position, better-than-average output growth outlook and falling state involvement. The country now sits three points behind China, but is unlikely to make much more progress over the medium term. Pakistan ranks 10th, ahead of Hong Kong, in BMI’s downstream Business Environment Ratings, reflecting its refinery capacity expansion plans, average oil and gas demand growth outlook and low level of retail site intensity.
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