Singapore Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, August 2010, Pages: 81
Business Monitor International's Singapore Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Singapore's oil and gas industry.
The latest Singapore Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 3.81% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2014, while not contributing to supply. Regional oil use of 21.42mn b/d in 2001 is set to reach 27.15mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2010, then to rise to around 30.21mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was around 8.35mn b/d in 2001 and is forecast to average an estimated 8.82mn b/d in 2010. It is set to increase only slightly to 8.89mn b/d by 2014. Oil imports are growing rapidly, because demand growth is outstripping the pace of supply expansion. In 2001 the region was importing an average of 13.07mn b/d. This total will rise to a projected 18.32mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 21.32mn b/d by 2014. The principal importers will be China, Japan, India and South Korea. By 2014 the only net exporter will be Malaysia.
In terms of natural gas, in 2010 the region will consume an estimated 496bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 625bcm is targeted for 2014. Production of a forecast 415bcm in 2010 should reach 522bcm in 2014, which implies net imports rising from around 81bcm to 104bcm. This is thanks to many Asian gas producers being major exporters. Singapore’s estimated share of gas consumption in 2010 is 2.02%, and market share is expected to rise to 2.03% by 2014. There is no gas production in Singapore. We continue to predict a 2010 OPEC basket oil price level of US$83.00/bbl. This equates to Brent at just under US$85.00, WTI at almost US$87.60, Urals averaging US$83.60 and Dubai at US$83.55. The 2011 OPEC assumption is US$85.00/bbl, rising to an average of around US$90.00 in 2012 and beyond. For the whole of 2010, we are currently assuming an average global jet fuel price of US$95.50/bbl, compared with around US$70.66 in 2009. The 2010 average global gasoil price, calculated by BMI, is US$92.67/bbl, against US$68.96 in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is estimated at US$83.09 – compared with US$59.30/bbl in 2009. For global unleaded gasoline, BMI is now forecasting an average of US$95.66/bbl in 2010, up from around US$70.17/bbl in 2009.
Singapore’s real GDP growth in 2010 is forecast by BMI to be 7.0%, followed by an average annual increase of 5.0% in 2010-2014. There is no domestic oil or gas production but there is an active downstream segment, with extensive international oil company (IOC) involvement in refining and petrochemicals. Oil consumption beyond 2009 is forecast to increase by around 3% per annum to 2014, implying demand of 1.15mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. Gas demand and imports are forecast to increase from an estimated 10.0bcm in 2010 to 12.7bcm by 2014.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Singapore’s domestic oil consumption from 966,000b/d to 1.33mn b/d (+30.48%), with the island’s refining capacity rising from 1.39mn b/d to 1.55mn b/d. Gas demand is expected to rise from around 10.0bcm in 2010 to a possible 18.2bcm by 2019, driven by power generation requirements. LNG imports are expected to commence in 2013 and reach 5.0bcm per annum through the initial import terminal. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts, which provide regional and country-specific projections, can be found later in this report.
Singapore holds seventh place above Japan in BMI’s composite Business Environment (BE) league table. The country ranks equal 12th (alongside Hong Kong) in BMI’s updated upstream Business Environment Ratings, thanks to a virtual absence of hydrocarbon resources. The score reflects the limited involvement of the government in upstream oil activities and an exceptionally healthy country risk profile, which partly offset the lack of reserves and output growth potential. The country sits ahead of South Korea and well clear of bottom-placed Taiwan in the upstream league table. Singapore ranks equal fourth with Japan in BMI’s downstream Business Environment Ratings, reflecting its relatively high level of oil consumption, increasing gas demand, established modern refining capability, fuels export capability and a relatively low level of retail site intensity. It is just one point behind Australia, but three clear of South Korea, and seems likely to retain its current position.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- Singapore Political SWOT
- Singapore Economic SWOT
- Singapore Business Environment SWOT
Singapore Energy Market Overview
- Global Oil Market Outlook
- Trouble On The Horizon
- OECD Outlook Remains Uncertain
- Africa Leads OPEC Lower
- No Change In Iran?
- Over-stocked
- Finding Support
- Table: Crude Price Assumptions 2010
- Table: Oil Price Forecasts
- Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d)
- Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d)
Regional Energy Market Overview
- Oil Supply And Demand
- Table: Asia Pacific Oil Consumption (000b/d)
- Table: Asia Pacific Oil Production (000b/d)
- Oil: Downstream
- Table: Asia Pacific Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)
- Gas Supply And Demand
- Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption (bcm)
- Table: Asia Pacific Gas Production (bcm)
- Liquefied Natural Gas
- Table: Asia Pacific LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm)
Business Environment Ratings
- Asia Pacific Region
- Composite Scores
- Table: Regional Composite Business Environment Rating
- Upstream Scores
- Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating
- Singapore Upstream Rating – Overview
- Singapore Upstream Rating – Rewards
- Singapore Upstream Rating – Risks
- Downstream Scores
- Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating
- Singapore Downstream Rating – Overview
- Singapore Downstream Rating – Rewards
- Singapore Downstream Rating – Risks
Business Environment
- Legal Framework
- Infrastructure
- Labour Force
- Foreign Investment Policy
- Tax Regime
- Security Risk
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Oil And Gas Reserves
- Oil Supply And Demand
- Gas Supply And Demand
- LNG
- Refining And Oil Products Trade
- Revenues/Import Costs
- Table: Singapore Oil And Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts
- Other Energy
- Table: Singapore Other Energy – Historical Data And Forecasts
- Key Risks To Forecast Scenario
Long-Term Energy Outlook
- Oil And Gas Infrastructure
- Oil Refineries
- Service Stations
- Oil Storage Facilities
- Oil Terminals/Ports
- LNG Terminals
- Gas Pipelines
- Macroeconomic Outlook
- Table: Singapore – Economic Activity
Competitive Landscape
- Executive Summary
- Table: Key Players – Singapore Oil And Gas Sector
- Overview/State Role
- Government Policy
- International Energy Relations
- Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Monitor
- Singapore Petroleum Company
- Chevron
- ExxonMobil Singapore
- Royal Dutch Shell
- BG Group – Summary
- Oil And Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts
- Regional Oil Demand
- Table: Asia Pacific Oil Consumption (000b/d)
- Regional Oil Supply
- Table: Asia Pacific Oil Production (000b/d)
- Regional Refining Capacity
- Table: Asia Pacific Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)
- Regional Gas Demand
- Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption (bcm)
- Regional Gas Supply
- Table: Asia Pacific Gas Production (bcm)
- Singapore Country Overview
- Methodology And Risks To Forecasts
Glossary Of Terms
- Oil And Gas Business Environment Ratings
- Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
- Ratings Overview
- Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure
- Indicators
- Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology
- Table: BMI Oil And Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology
BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Oil And Gas Industry
- Cross Checks
- Sources
- Singapore Petroleum Company
- Chevron
- ExxonMobil Singapore
- Royal Dutch Shell
- BG Group
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