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Vietnam Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Aug 2010, Pages: 101
Business Monitor International's Vietnam Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Vietnam's oil and gas industry.
The latest Vietnam Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 1.52% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2014, while providing 4.19% of supply. Regional oil use of 21.42mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 is set to reach a forecast 27.15mn b/d in 2010, then to rise to around 30.21mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was around 8.35mn b/d in 2001 and is forecast to average an estimated 8.82mn b/d in 2010. It is set to increase only slightly to 8.89mn b/d by 2014. Oil imports are growing rapidly, because demand growth is outstripping the pace of supply expansion. In 2001 the region was importing an average of 13.07mn b/d. This total will rise to a projected 18.32mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 21.32mn b/d by 2014. The principal importers will be China, Japan, India and South Korea. By 2014 the only net exporter will be Malaysia.
In terms of natural gas, in 2010 the region will consume an estimated 496bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 625bcm is targeted for 2014. Production of a forecast 415bcm in 2010 should reach 522bcm in 2014, which implies net imports rising from around 81bcm to 104bcm. This is thanks to many Asian gas producers being major exporters. Vietnam’s estimated share of gas consumption in 2010 is 1.84%, while its share of production is put at 2.20%. By 2014, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 2.56%, with the country accounting for 4.60% of supply.
We continue to predict a 2010 OPEC basket oil price level of US$83.00/bbl. This equates to Brent at just under US$85.00, WTI at almost US$87.60, Urals averaging US$83.60 and Dubai at US$83.55. The 2011 OPEC assumption is US$85.00/bbl, rising to an average of around US$90.00 in 2012 and beyond. For the whole of 2010, we are currently assuming an average global jet fuel price of US$95.50/bbl, compared with around US$70.66 in 2009. The 2010 average global gasoil price, calculated by BMI, is US$92.67/bbl, against US$68.96 in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is estimated at US$83.09 – compared with US$59.30/bbl in 2009. For global unleaded gasoline, BMI is now forecasting an average US$95.66/bbl in 2010, up from around US$70.17/bbl in 2009.
Vietnamese real GDP growth in 2010 is assumed by BMI to be 4.4%, followed by a forecast average annual 5.9% increase during 2010 to 2014. Exploration success has been on the rise in Vietnam, with a growing number of international oil companies (IOCs) teaming up with PetroVietnam and finding and developing hydrocarbon resources – particularly gas. We are assuming oil and gas liquids production peaking at 400,000b/d in 2010, before easing back to 372,000b/d by 2014. Beyond 2009, consumption is forecast to increase by around 5-7% per annum to 2014, implying demand of 460,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. Gas production is forecast to increase from the estimated 2010 figure of 9.1bcm to 24.0bcm by 2014 – providing a basis for exports.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting a decline in Vietnamese oil production of 18.75%, with crude volumes peaking at 400,000b/d in 2010, before slipping to 325,000b/d by 2019. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2019 is set to increase by 68.13%, with growth beyond 2009 ranging from 5.0% to 7.0% per annum and the country using 625,000 b/d by 2019. Gas production is expected to rise from an estimated 9.1bcm in 2010 to 34.0bcm in 2019. With 184% demand growth, we see potential for exports later in the period. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts which provide regional and country-specific projections, can be found at the end of this report.
Vietnam takes fourth place, behind China, in BMI’s composite Business Environment (BE) league table, which reflects largely its strong upstream position. The country now holds third place, behind India, in BMI’s updated upstream Business Environment Ratings, with its ranking reflecting a reasonable resource position, better-than-average growth outlook, attractive licensing terms and an IOC-friendly competitive environment. There is a comfortable seven-point gap between Vietnam and fourth-placed Papua New Guinea (PNG), which should keep it safe from any near-term challenges. Vietnam ranks 12th, just behind Hong Kong and Pakistan, in BMI’s downstream Business Environment Ratings, reflecting its modest (but growing) refining capacity, above-average oil and gas demand growth outlook, and low level of retail site intensity.
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