|
|
 |
|
Viewing report
|
|
|
|
Brazil Metals Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Oct 2010, Pages: 59
The Brazil Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, metals associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Brazil's metals industry.
The Brazilian steel industry has gone from strength to strength, with a consistent recovery throughout H110 and into H210 led by domestic demand, according to this latest Brazil Metals Report from BMI.
For the first eight months of 2010, crude steel output totalled 22.1mn tonnes (up 40.5% year-on-year (y-oy)), while hot rolled output was 17.6mn tonnes (up 45.8% y-o-y). This confirms BMI’s forecast for 33.7mn tonnes of crude steel output in 2010. Cumulative domestic steel product sales for the eight months of 2010 were 14.5mn tonnes, up 47.7% y-o-y. Exports totalled 5.4mn tonnes in volume (up 3.9% y-o-y), and US$3.4bn in value (up 17.6% y-o-y), while imports grew 155.6% y-o-y to 3.8mn tonnes. As a result, national apparent consumption of steel products grew 61.3% y-o-y to 18.1mn tonnes, which confirms BMI’s forecast of 24mn tonnes of finished steel consumption for 2010 (up 27.3% y-o-y), including an expected slowdown in Q410. Strong growth in output has raised inventories to 1.3mn tonnes in August 2010, according to Brazilian steel distributor Frefer, enough for four months of supply compared to a historical average of 2.7 months. As a result, downward pressure will be exerted on prices, with discounts of 10-20% on offer during Q310 in order to compete with imports, which BMI has revised up to 4.9mn tonnes, an increase of 80% y-o-y. Another threat to domestic steelmakers comes from government plans to remove, or reduce duties on steel imports from the current 14%. To this extent, the governments aim to alleviate inflationary pressures within the economy in making such a reduction has alarmed domestic steelmakers, who fear greater foreign competition.
Steelmaking capacity is due to surge in coming years from the 42.1mn tonnes per annum (tpa) in 2009. The 5mn tpa export-oriented ThyssenKrupp CSA Siderúrgica do Atlântico steel mill at Santa Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, started producing slab in September 2010. The partners involved – ThyssenKrupp and Vale – have indicated that slab output could be expanded to 6mn tpa in the future. ArcelorMittal is to invest US$1.2bn in Brazilian steel operations, including at its Joao Monlevade facility, thereby increasing production capacity to 2.4mn tpa. Currently, the plant’s output is primarily focused on long products, but expansion plans include the construction of additional lines that will allow the company to also produce both hot and cold rolled products. Also among the company’s plans is the completion of a second blast furnace. Construction is expected to be complete by mid-2012. Meanwhile, Vale is building a 3mn tpa plant, Companhia Siderurgica do Pecem, in north-eastern Brazil in a joint venture with South Korean steelmaker Dongkuk that may see its capacity doubled to 6mn tpa when completed in 2013. Vale’s ALPA project in Pará state will add a further 2.5mn tpa of slab capacity when it comes online in 2013, costing US$3.2bn. It will have capacities of 710,000tpa HR steel, 450,000tpa CR steel and 150,000tpa of galvanised steel at its rolling mill. Another major Vale project is the Ube Steel Company (CSU), which is due to come into operation in 2014 with capacity of 5mn tpa, bringing total Brazilian capacity to around 60mn tpa. As a result of this increase, BMI forecasts crude steel production at 50.6mn tonnes in 2014, up over 90% compared to 2009.
In the aluminium sector, production remains flat despite a 35.3% y-o-y rise in consumption of aluminium fabricated products to 626,700 tonnes in H110. Indeed, consumption was up 17% with reference to figures from H108, before the crisis hit. Primary aluminium output was down 0.5% y-o-y to 1.02mn tonnes in the first eight months of the year, whereas output in August was up 1.7% y-o-y to 131,600 tonnes. However, output was largely at or near maximum capacity at most Brazilian smelters with overall output affected by the closure of the Valesul’s 94,000tpa smelter and a 6,400 tonne reduction in activities at Novelis’ 58,000tpa Aratu smelter, only partly offset by an expansion in production at Alcoa’s Poços de Caldas facility, which reported output up 13,400 tonnes over the period. The increase in consumption of semi-manufactured products included a 28.5% rise in sheets, a 45.0% rise in extruded products, 43.9% growth in castings and 32.4% growth in foils. There are, however, growing concerns that the country could become a net importer of aluminium by 2014, when consumption is likely to exceed installed capacity of 1.6mn tpa.
Product samples
A sample for this product is available. Please Login/Register to download this sample.
Customers who bought this item also bought
Brazil Metals Report Q4 2011
Brazil Metals Report Q1 2012
Brazil Metals Report Q2 2011
Brazil Metals Report Q3 2010
Brazil Metals Report Q2 2012
Brazil Metals Report Q4 2009
Brazil Metals Report Q1 2010
Brazil Metals Report Q3 2009
India Metals Report Q4 2011
Ukraine Metals Report Q4 2010
|
|
|
|
