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Global Shale Gas - What Now? What Next?
No Hot Air, November 2010, Pages: 117
A report on the worldwide impact of the shale gas revolution in North America, and the future impact of shale from an international perspective. The report analyses key topics such as the history of shale, the key metric of environmental sustainability, how affordable is shale and explains how shale is the energy story of the twentieth century. The report continues to explain how the impact of LNG on world gas markets is being magnified by shale, in turn promising to provide lower energy costs worldwide. A key finding of the report is that failure to respect the benefits of falling prices from shale is one of the key energy risks any business needs to consider. Full description of the US and Canadian shale experience and how it is spreading worldwide, with particular emphasis on Europe, China and India. The report covers shale activity world-wide and also includes short, medium and long term gas price forecasts.The report should also be read by anyone investing in the carbon and renewable sectors as the sudden emergence and future abundance of global natural gas promises to disrupt conventional thinking for investors in renewable energy, Carbon Capture and Storage, gas storage projects and nuclear energy.
Shale Gas is a generic term referring to the technology of a new form of natural gas extraction pioneered only recently in the USA
Shale Gas has led to a stunning increase in actual production of natural gas and assessment of future reserves.
The sudden emergence of shale gas is mirrored by a future permanence. In any business, suddenly out of date strategies based on energy as being in short supply, expensive or carbon intense need to be corrected to mirror today’s reality.
Production started in the geologic formation called the Barnett Shale under Fort Worth, Texas. Within the first four years of production, the single area produced 6% of entire US production.
In 2009, respected US geologists of the Potential Gas Committee increased recoverable reserve estimates compared to 2007 by over 35%.
The shale process was originally thought competitive with conventional gas production. It is now considered cheaper.
The reality behind shale gas is that actual environmental issues tend to be over-stated.
North American success is being replicated worldwide. There are political constraints, but not geologic, environmental or economic ones.
The Barnett Shale is now considered the smallest of the eight major shales in North America. The Marcellus Shale centered in Pennsylvania, saw reserves estimate go from effectively zero in 2006 to being the second largest gas field in the world by 2009. The impact of the Marcellus, due to both size and location near major cities will be seen as similar to the first oil discoveries in Texas, Iraq and Iran just over a hundred years ago.
Shale gas will not only make fears of rising energy insecurity irrelevant, it will make holding those fears one of the biggest risks enterprises can hold today.
Discoveries in the US and Canada are large enough that both countries are set to export gas to both Asia and Europe via Liquified Natural Gas tankers from 2014. Combined with existing LNG oversupply, and via the role of gas in generation, gas and power prices will be stable and lower worldwide.
Shale gas extraction has both an immediate impact on prices in the UK and Europe and will continue to be a significant trend in Europe, India and especially China.
Shale gas will be found in Europe in significant enough quantity to have a permanent impact on energy prices within five to seven years.
The subject of shale has already engendered some myths instead of realities addressed in this report. The report details the reality of environmental impact of shale on water resources and the local environment. We point out that many environmental organizations support shale gas an important, immediate and most of all cheap way of providing a bridge fuel that complements renewables, not competes with them.
Exaggerated and unrealistic fears over energy insecurity are the greatest energy risk companies face. Strategies based on rising energy costs and/or fear of shortages or blackouts are outdated, expensive and dangerous.
Corporate energy strategies need to be updated to reflect the fast moving, paradigm shifts that shale gas is causing.
Shale gas is a true inflection point. Beyond it, everything changes, and for most people, for far the better. Before it, one should consider how many energy experts completely failed to predict shale’s appearance or impact. True experts understand this and are intelligent and astute enough to realize what need to change. Others are unaware, or worse, hostile to the rise of shale due to the impact it will have on revenue streams based on suddenly obsolete theory.
Introduction
Executive Summary
Why Gas Matters
The Birth of Modern Shale
Geology for non-geologists
Water Issues in Shale
Giant: The Marcellus Shale and what it means
Fracking: The controversy explained and defused
Shale Gas in Canada
US Natural Gas Export Potential
World Investment in North America Shale
The Economics of Shale
Shale's impact on world LNG markets
Shale Gas In Europe Part 1: Problems and Solutions
Global Shale Gas resources
The Impact of Shale Gas in Asia
Shale Gas Impact in Australia and SE Asai
Shale Gas Impact in Sub-Saharan Africa
Shale Gas in Latin America
Shale Gas in Europe Part 2
Shale Gas Impact in Middle East/North Africa
What Next: Unconventional Oil
Shale Gas Impact on Russia/FSU
The oil/gas link Dormant or Dead?
Short Term Natural Gas Prices to 2015
What Next? : Natural Gas Vehicles
The Gas Exporting Countries Forum
The Danger Years?: Gas prices 2015-2020
Price Forecasts post 2020
Conclusions
List of tables
Top Eight North American Shales
Selected Gas Reserves by Major Countries and Reserve Growth 1999/2009
Comparable use of 4 million US gallons of water
Average Well Head Price $MMBTU January 2010
Composition of Fracking Fluids in US Gallons
Cheniere Gas Export Cost Projection 2010
Wells Drilled by Company in Haynesville Shale 2010
Selected Company Cost Structure September 2010
LNG Importers over 1BCM Demand 2009 with forward prospects
LNG Transport Costs Major Markets 2010
North American LNG Import Terminals
Other European Shale Activity 2010
2009 Russia Pipeline Exports to EU
Natural Gas Vehicles by Top 15 countries.
Tranportation Cost of TEU Container 2007/2010
Gas Exporting Countries Forum exports by LNG and Pipeline 2009"
List of figures
Comparative carbon content of fossil fuels
World Gas v Coal consumption by MTOE
WorldPrimary Energy by Fuel Type
Map: Countries sized by percentage of natural gas in generation mix
UK Electricity Generation by Fuel Source 2010
Capital Cost of UK Generation kWh installed
North American Pipeline Grid and Gas Shales Map
Barnett Shale Gas Production 1990/2008
Projected Production of US Shales 2000/2030
US Gas Production by Exraction Method 2000/2035
Map US Shale Gas Plays
Shale Gas Subsurface Diagram
Map Marcellus Shale Well Permits 2010
Wells Drilled Susquehanna County PA 2010
Map: Canada Natural Gas Production and Distribution
Canadian Shale Gas Production Forecast 2010/2030
Quebec Natural Gas Consumption by end use share
Henry Hub Gas Prices 2008/2010
World LNG Import Capacity by Region Share 2009
Evolution of forecasts made 2004/2010 of US LNG imports to 2030
Gas Production in North Sea 1995/2009
Gas Consumption, Italy, Netherlands, France, Germany Spain 2000/2009
Baker Hughes Europe Rig Count 2000/2010
Distribution of World Shale Gas Potential
Map: World Shale Basins
Map: Potential Shale Reserves by continent
World LNG Imports by Region 2009
Japan LNG Imports by Source 2009
Asian LNG Imports by Country 2009
Australia, Malaysia, Indonesia Gas Production/consumption 2009
Shale gas Activity North Island New Zealand
Latin American Gas Consumption BCM 2000/2009
World Shale Gas Potential by Region
Polish Shale Concessions Map 2010
Major European Gas Demand 2000/20009
Map Composite Energy Licenses in UK 2010
Wessex Petroleum Licenses Southern England 2010
Gas Use by OECD, FSU, EME, China and India 2009
World Gas use by sector 2009
UK diesel v CNG fuel price comparison 2005/2009
US Consumption of Natural Gas for Transport Use 1997/2009
UK Gas, Electricity and Oil Consumption 2000/2009+I7
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