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Belgium Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Oct 2010, Pages: 67
The Belgium Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Belgium's oil and gas industry.
The new Belgium Oil & Gas Report forecasts that the country will account for 6.03% of developed European regional oil demand by 2014, while making no appreciable contribution to supply. In Developed Europe, overall oil consumption will average an estimated 13.10mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2010. It is set to recover to around 13.29mn b/d by 2014. Developed Europe regional oil production was 6.96mn b/d in 2001, and in 2010 will average an estimated 4.45mn b/d. It is set to fall to just 3.69mn b/d by 2014. Oil imports are growing steadily because supply is contracting and demand is rising, albeit slowly. In 2010, net crude imports will be an estimated 8.65mn b/d. By 2014, they are expected to have reached 9.60mn b/d. Norway will remain the only major net exporter, with the UK a net importer.
As regards natural gas, the Developed Europe region in 2010 consumed an estimated 419.5bcm, with demand of 458.1bcm targeted for 2014, representing 9.2% growth. Production of an estimated 259.3bcm in 2010 is set to fall to 259.0bcm in 2014, which implies net imports rising from the estimated 2010 level of 156.6bcm to some 199.1bcm by the end of the period. Belgium’s share of gas consumption in 2010 will have been an estimated 4.17%, while it makes no contribution to production. By 2014, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 3.97%.
For 2010 as a whole, we continue to assume an average OPEC basket price of US$83.00/bbl, +36.4% year-on-year (y-o-y). Risk is now clearly on the downside, thanks to the slow progress made during June- August. However, a full-year outturn in excess of US$80 remains a strong possibility and we see no need to review our assumptions at this point. BMI is assuming an OPEC basket price of US$85.00/bbl in 2011, with WTI averaging US$89.74. Our central assumption for 2012 and beyond is an OPEC price averaging US$90.00/bbl, delivering WTI at just over US$95.00.
For 2010, the BMI assumption for premium unleaded gasoline is an average global price of US$95.45/bbl. The overall y-o-y rise in 2010 gasoline prices is put at 36%. Gasoil in 2010 is expected to average US$93.23/bbl. The full-year outturn represents a 35% increase from the 2009 level. For 2010, the annual jet price level is forecast to be US$95.90/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$83.53/bbl, up 41% from the previous year’s level. Belgian real GDP is assumed by BMI to rise by 1.6% in 2010. We are assuming average annual growth of 1.8% in 2010-2014. Oil demand is expected to have recovered only slightly in 2010, before rising slowly to reach 801,000b/d by 2014. From an estimated 17.5bcm in 2010, we expect to see gas demand rise to a minimum of 18.2bcm by 2014, all met by increased pipeline and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Belgian oil and gas liquids consumption of 1.90%, with volumes rising slowly from an estimated 785,000b/d in 2010 to a peak of 805,000b/d by 2015. Gas demand should rise from the estimated 2010 level of 17.5bcm to 19.1bcm by 2019, all based on LNG and pipeline imports. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
According to BMI’s country risk team, Belgium’s long-term political risk score is 74.7, compared with the Developed Markets average of 86.7 and the global average of 63.0. Our long-term economic rating for the country is 66.5, just below the Developed Markets average of 66.8 and above the global average of 53.2. Belgium has a privatised energy sector operating under EU guidelines. There is no upstream oil and gas segment but downstream oil and gas features a mixture of international oil companies (IOCs) and former state companies now in foreign hands. Both the gas and power markets are open to competition.
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