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Canada Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Oct 2010, Pages: 59
The Canada Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Canada's oil and gas industry.
The new Canada Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 10.88% of North American regional oil demand by 2014, while contributing 32.55% to supply. In North America, overall oil consumption will be a projected 21.15mn b/d in 2010. It is set to rise to around 21.43mn b/d by 2014. North American regional oil production will average an estimated 10.47mn b/d in 2010 and is set to rise to 10.6mn b/d by 2014. Canada will have made an estimated 31.06% contribution to 2010 regional oil supply, with its market share expected to be 32.55% by 2014. Net imports for the region should be 10.83mn b/d in 2014 – up from an estimated 10.68mn b/d in 2010.
In terms of natural gas, North America will consume an estimated 751bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2010, with demand of 799bcm targeted for 2014, representing 6.4% growth. Estimated production of 698bcm in 2010 should ease to 690bcm in 2014, which implies net imports rising to some 109bcm by the end of the period. Canada’s share of gas consumption in 2010 is an estimated 12.80%, while it contributed 20.92% to regional production. By 2014, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 12.96%, with 20.29% of regional supply.
For 2010 as a whole, we continue to assume an average OPEC basket price of US$83.00/bbl (+36.4% yo-y). Risk is now clearly on the downside, thanks to the slow progress made during June-August. However, a full year outturn in excess of US$80 remains a strong possibility and we see no need to review our assumptions at this point. BMI is assuming an OPEC basket price of US$85.00/bbl in 2011, with WTI averaging US$89.74. Our central assumption for 2012 and beyond is an OPEC price averaging US$90.00/bbl, delivering WTI at just over US$95.00.
For 2010, the BMI assumption for premium unleaded gasoline is an average global price of US$95.45/bbl. The overall y-o-y rise in 2010 gasoline prices is put at 36%. Gasoil in 2010 is expected to average US$93.23/bbl. The full-year outturn represents a 35% increase from the 2009 level. For 2010, the annual jet price level is forecast to be US$95.90/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$83.53/bbl, up 41% from the previous year’s level. BMI calculates Canadian real GDP rising by 3.3% in 2010. We are assuming 2.9% average annual growth in 2010-2014. The country’s oil demand is expected to average 2.28mn b/d in 2010, before rising to 2.33mn b/d by 2014. Oil output looks set to reach 3.45mn b/d by 2014, subject to oil sands development.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Canadian oil production of 26.15%, with output rising steadily from an estimated 3.25mn b/d in 2010 to 4.10mn b/d at the end of the 10-year forecast period. Given that oil consumption is forecast to decline by 0.41%, exports should rise from an estimated 0.98mn b/d to 1.83mn b/d during the forecast period. Gas production should ease from the estimated 2010 level of 146bcm to a low of 138bcm in 2012, before recovering to165bcm by 2019. Demand is forecast to rise from an estimated 96.1bcm to 110.4bcm, leaving net exports of 54.6bcm, largely to the US. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
According this report, Canada’s long-term political risk score is 85.3, compared with the Developed Markets average of 86.7 and the global average of 63.0. Our long-term economic rating for the country is 68.4, above the Developed Markets average of 66.8 and above the global average of 53.2. Canada has a privatised energy sector that boasts a large, competitive upstream oil and gas segment featuring domestic independents and integrated companies, plus direct and indirect participation by international oil companies (IOCs). The downstream segment is shared by IOC-controlled domestic companies and former state company Petro-Canada, which Suncor acquired in 2009.
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