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France Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010
Business Monitor International, Oct 2010, Pages: 79
The France Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on France's oil and gas industry.
The latest France Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 14.48% of developed European regional oil demand by 2014, while making a 0.24% contribution to supply. In Developed Europe, overall oil consumption will average an estimated 13.10mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2010. It is set to recover to around 13.29mn b/d by 2014. Developed Europe regional oil production was 6.96mn b/d in 2001, and in 2010 will average an estimated 4.45mn b/d. It is set to fall to just 3.69mn b/d by 2014. Oil imports are growing steadily because supply is contracting and demand is rising, albeit slowly. In 2010, net crude imports will be an estimated 8.65mn b/d. By 2014, they are expected to have reached 9.60mn b/d. Norway will remain the only major net exporter, with the UK a net importer. As regards natural gas, the Developed Europe region in 2010 consumed an estimated 419.5bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 458.1bcm targeted for 2014, representing 9.2% growth. Production of an estimated 259.3bcm in 2010 is set to fall to 259.0bcm in 2014, which implies net imports rising from the estimated 2010 level of 156.6bcm to some 199.1bcm by the end of the period. The French share of gas consumption in 2010 will be an estimated 10.26%, while it has no appreciable share of production. By 2014, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 9.68%.
For 2010 as a whole, we continue to assume an average OPEC basket price of US$83.00/bbl, +36.4% year-on-year (y-o-y). Risk is now clearly on the downside, thanks to the slow progress made during June- August. However, a full-year outturn in excess of US$80 remains a strong possibility and we see no need to review our assumptions at this point. BMI is assuming an OPEC basket price of US$85.00/bbl in 2011, with WTI averaging US$89.74. Our central assumption for 2012 and beyond is an OPEC price averaging US$90.00/bbl, delivering WTI at just over US$95.00.
For 2010, the BMI assumption for premium unleaded gasoline is an average global price of US$95.45/bbl. The overall y-o-y rise in 2010 gasoline prices is put at 36%. Gasoil in 2010 is expected to average US$93.23/bbl. The full-year outturn represents a 35% increase from the 2009 level. For 2010, the annual jet price level is forecast to be US$95.90/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$83.53/bbl, up 41% from the previous year’s level. French real GDP is assumed by BMI to have risen by 1.5% in 2010. We are assuming 1.8% average annual growth in 2010-2014. Oil consumption is set to stagnate in spite of increased economic activity, with demand of an estimated 1.88mn b/d in 2010 expected to rally to no more than 1.93mn b/d by 2014.
Crude oil imports are expected to have reached 1.92mn b/d by 2014, with domestic crude oil production falling from an estimated 15,000b/d to just 9,000b/d over the period. Gas demand is expected to rise more quickly than for oil, with new sources of supply being lined up by GDF Suez, which has signed import agreements with Egypt, Russia, Norway, Algeria and the Netherlands. Gas consumption is likely to have reached 44.4bcm by 2014. Production is negligible, so imports could rise to 42.4bcm.
Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in French oil and gas liquids consumption of 1.60%, with estimated 2010 demand of 1.88mn b/d rising slowly to a peak of 1.93mn b/d in 2013/14. By 2019, we are forecasting French consumption of 1.91mn b/d. Production is set to fall from around 15,000b/d to just 5,000b/d during the same period. Gas demand should rise from the estimated 2010 level of 43.1bcm to a peak of 45.0bcm in 2017, based on liquefied natural gas (LNG) and pipeline imports. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
According to BMI’s country risk team, France’s long-term political risk score is 84.0, compared with the Developed Markets average of 86.7 and the global average of 63.0. Our long-term economic rating for the country is 65.5, below the Developed Markets average of 66.8 and above the global average of 53.2. France has a fully privatised and competitive oil and gas industry. State holdings have been reduced greatly in electricity and gas suppliers EdF and GDF Suez. The upstream and downstream oil segments are privatised and deregulated, with considerable IOC involvement in refining and distribution, even though former state company Total has the greatest market share.
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